Great job! West Palm Beach here hoping he stays well off shore and then out to sea. I saw a video of Kingston already dealing with storm surge. Very scary and serious situation developing. Thanks for keeping us informed.
So I am currently looking at the models and the European Model is currently showing an interesting solution…it shows the North then NNW path then it shows it sitting off of the Carolina coast due to the ridge off the coast then the ridge near NE…then as the finally move off(not by much)it then takes it on a NNW course toward Cape Cod…any thought??? I know it’s one run but it seems interesting…also the last three runs of the Euro shift slightly west overtime.
That kind of motion entirely depends on the character and timing of the trough coming out of the Great Plains. With each model run that will likely change until we are only a couple days away from its arrival.
Great commentary and analysis, Levi. What a crazy, exciting, and scary situation unfolding.
I’d like to believe the current WNW direction is just a wobble of the eye as it spins around, but seeing it move in the same direction for 6+ hours has me skeptical. The further west it goes now the greater the probability of US landfall.
So much to watch in coming days. Dr Klotzbach’s ACE statistic that he so often references is going to blow up from just this one storm, as it stays a major cane for so long. Matthew will put this year on the map after so many below average seasons in the past decade.
Hanging on to this site for great info. I’m Virginia Beach Virginia/ Hatteras area. Thank you all, especially Levi, for all of the input. My family and I very much appreciate it. Will continue to monitor and look forward to any advice in the near future.
Hi Levi, Thank You. Is there any possibility that the mountains could cause the center to reform in another location once it leaves the Cuban coast? Or is the storm too strong to be torn up as much as a weaker system might?
Hurricanes are less susceptible to reformations, as the location of lowest pressure never really changes. However, mountains in the Greater Antilles have been know to “jerk around” even major hurricanes and toss them a few dozen miles in a given direction.
A few things I like to always note with forecasts this far out, some of which you similarly spoke about:
1) This is, as you said, a 6 day forecast for the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Things are VERY likely to change drastically between now and then. Very few 6 day forecasts end up verifying.
2) You mentioned this, but the models have been horrible with this storm. There’s no reason why they should start nailing it any time soon.
3) This is my personal opinion, but it seems very possible that little land interaction occurs. It doesn’t seem especially likely that the storm will make an actual landfall in Haiti or Jamaica, and it seems like it’ll pass over a narrow part of Cuba, meaning less time over land. That would be bad for the Bahamas.
The storm would be transitioning into a nontropical system at that point, and if there exists mid-latitude dynamics that can support a strong nontropical system, it could make that transition without technically weakening much, though it would be changing into an entirely different type of storm during that time.
Have you seen the photos of the sprites, reportedly taken in the direction of Matthew’s parasitic twin?
I’m not a big HAARP conspiracy fan, but these sprites do look rather robust.
From Dr. Master’s Blog, see the two links
435. no1der
2:37 AM GMT on October 03, 2016
16
+
Intense storms in the Blob (see LightningMaps.org for real-time) have been producing red sprites as seen from 200mi away in Puerto Rico.
Excellent update, as always. Being a little uninformed, I’m unsure of the spelling of the term you used to describe the erratic, step like track of Matthew and other major hurricanes, so I’ll spell it how it sounded (cho-coy-tull) oscillations. M
Great briefings young man!! Hard to believe you are just a grad student!! Too bad the Hurricane Center doesn’t have 12 hour briefings of this nature (they should!!).Anyway, great analysis and who knows, we might see you as one of the Hurricane Forecasters at the WX. Burro down the road!! Finally, great web site. You’ve done well, keep it up kid!!
What is your general opinion of the likelihood of this Sandying into the mid-Atlantic at this point? I know it’s a pretty unlikely situation, but is it still on the table?
Based on the recent shift to the west, the whole cost from FL to NC is going to be impacted. FL at the least should see strong onshore flow with increasing wave action. What will be interesting will be the trend of the guidance over the next 24 hours. It will not take much more of a westward drift to put Matthew right on the coast.
Bathing Suits
It was created by statute and can be taken back through statutory action. The
idiotic lawsuit by the unions was an embarrassing
waste of everyone time and scarce dollars. Its another indication of why the rights were stripped in the first place.
Matthews, Aunt Mollie welcomes young Sammy who has come as an uninvited guest for dinner.
But it is clear from the outset that there
is no such thing as an uninvited guest to Aunt Mollie, who only wants to know why it has been almost a week since Sammy dropped by and is genuinely concerned that some
illness might have been the reason. Aunt Mollie, we learn, is
a surrogate mother to the teenage Sammy.
Bathing Suits LOL great whimsical touch, here! I guess we’re on opposite sides of the fence, however.
I do like raisins, as well as grapes, and wine. I don’t mind sour
cream on my potato but I won’t go out of my way for it
if I don’t have any. The details that you are not sure about,
you can fill them at the time of submission or seek help
from others.Step 2: Fill it upAfter filling the form, make sure that you attach all your documents and photographs (35×35 mm or 45×35 mm
4 each). The documents required are your age proof, permanent address proof, and
your address proof of Pune. For age proof, try to submit government recognized documents like PAN card, passport,
voter’s ID, driving license, ration card,
birth certificate, etc.Step 3: Gather all the documentsFor permanent address proof also, try to furnish government recognized documents like passport, ration card, electricity bill, driving license
containing address, voter’s ID, school leaving certificate, or any document which has your permanent address.For Pune address proof, you can give your
office address proof, rent agreement, driving license, etc.
Bathing Suits
cheap swimwear When selecting a belt to add to these dresses, never use one which is made to be worn with pants or jeans.
These belts often have a look which is not flattering to dresses.
Try to find belts which are thinner in design. Financial assets and
liabilities are measured at fair value using the three
level valuation hierarchy for disclosure of fair value
measurements. The determination of the applicable
level within the hierarchy of a particular asset or liability depends on the inputs used in the valuation as of the measurement date, notably the extent to which
the inputs are market base (observable)or internally derived (unobservable).
Observable inputs are inputs that market participants would
use in pricing the asset or liability developed based
on market data obtained from independent sources. cheap
swimwear
Women’s Swimwear Offers a free trial for 15 days, with a
price of $54.95 per year for unlimited backup after the trial ends.
Carbonite has a very easy means to determine if files have
been backed up; the addition of a green dot on icons in explorer.
Interestingly, Carbonite restricts backup until a subscription is
purchased by preventing the backup of music files during the trial.
Women’s Swimwear
Cheap Swimsuits Both sides. Sure, you expected to remain moderately civil but honesty >civility because there no hope of saving that relationship without it.
Same thing here. As for mass bans, ban evaders ruin it for the rest of you (and I
say there similar numbers of T_D ban evaders).
If reddit had any serious protection against ban evaders, we ban a lot less users and be more judicious in the bans we did give.
But given that we do get so many ban evaders (many frankly admit it),
we ban more readily. Cheap Swimsuits
swimwear sale It weird, but as bad as the old system was it was almost better
that way. We built friendships staying up way too late, yammering on about god knows what.
We had inside jokes for days. Just about every generation has had
a fashion that makes a statement, both about the person wearing
the clothes, as well as society. Many of the hippies who streamed
into Woodstock and the Haight Ashbury neighborhood of San Francisco during the 1960s wore bell bottom pants and
tie dyed shirts meant to convey a message of peace.
Subsequent generations of punk rockers and hip hop followers also decked themselves out in garb that sent messages, albeit
ones often more combative than that intended by the hippies
swimwear sale.
Comments
Extremely scary scenario for Jamaica, Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas. US impacts could be serious as well. Thanks for posting, as always.
Great job! West Palm Beach here hoping he stays well off shore and then out to sea. I saw a video of Kingston already dealing with storm surge. Very scary and serious situation developing. Thanks for keeping us informed.
Mr.Cowan just an oustanding job with the updates.
clear concise and on the money….
BEST
Levi,
So I am currently looking at the models and the European Model is currently showing an interesting solution…it shows the North then NNW path then it shows it sitting off of the Carolina coast due to the ridge off the coast then the ridge near NE…then as the finally move off(not by much)it then takes it on a NNW course toward Cape Cod…any thought??? I know it’s one run but it seems interesting…also the last three runs of the Euro shift slightly west overtime.
Thanks,
Rainer
That kind of motion entirely depends on the character and timing of the trough coming out of the Great Plains. With each model run that will likely change until we are only a couple days away from its arrival.
Great commentary and analysis, Levi. What a crazy, exciting, and scary situation unfolding.
I’d like to believe the current WNW direction is just a wobble of the eye as it spins around, but seeing it move in the same direction for 6+ hours has me skeptical. The further west it goes now the greater the probability of US landfall.
So much to watch in coming days. Dr Klotzbach’s ACE statistic that he so often references is going to blow up from just this one storm, as it stays a major cane for so long. Matthew will put this year on the map after so many below average seasons in the past decade.
Hanging on to this site for great info. I’m Virginia Beach Virginia/ Hatteras area. Thank you all, especially Levi, for all of the input. My family and I very much appreciate it. Will continue to monitor and look forward to any advice in the near future.
Hi Levi, Thank You. Is there any possibility that the mountains could cause the center to reform in another location once it leaves the Cuban coast? Or is the storm too strong to be torn up as much as a weaker system might?
Hurricanes are less susceptible to reformations, as the location of lowest pressure never really changes. However, mountains in the Greater Antilles have been know to “jerk around” even major hurricanes and toss them a few dozen miles in a given direction.
Excellent Job…please do not go private !
A few things I like to always note with forecasts this far out, some of which you similarly spoke about:
1) This is, as you said, a 6 day forecast for the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Things are VERY likely to change drastically between now and then. Very few 6 day forecasts end up verifying.
2) You mentioned this, but the models have been horrible with this storm. There’s no reason why they should start nailing it any time soon.
3) This is my personal opinion, but it seems very possible that little land interaction occurs. It doesn’t seem especially likely that the storm will make an actual landfall in Haiti or Jamaica, and it seems like it’ll pass over a narrow part of Cuba, meaning less time over land. That would be bad for the Bahamas.
Why is Matthew expected to stay so strong so far north? There’s a big drop in water temps North of the Carolinas.
The storm would be transitioning into a nontropical system at that point, and if there exists mid-latitude dynamics that can support a strong nontropical system, it could make that transition without technically weakening much, though it would be changing into an entirely different type of storm during that time.
[…] Source: Tropical Tidbits — [Sunday Evening] Matthew Moving Toward Jamaica and Haiti – Potential Long-Ter… […]
Any effect on Matthew from Invest 98L?
Levi,
Have you seen the photos of the sprites, reportedly taken in the direction of Matthew’s parasitic twin?
I’m not a big HAARP conspiracy fan, but these sprites do look rather robust.
From Dr. Master’s Blog, see the two links
435. no1der
2:37 AM GMT on October 03, 2016
16
+
Intense storms in the Blob (see LightningMaps.org for real-time) have been producing red sprites as seen from 200mi away in Puerto Rico.
http://www.lightningmaps.org/#m=sat;r=0;t=3;s=0;o=0;b=;n=1;y=14.8818;x=-73.3117;z=6;d=2;dl=2;dc=0;ra=1;i=1;
http://spaceweathergallery.com/indiv_upload.php?upload_id=129751
Thank you for the update! Keeping folks in the region in my prayers.
Mathew seems to be trying to give birth on its east side. Very unusual persistent structure. Just sayin, any analogues on that?
Excellent update, as always. Being a little uninformed, I’m unsure of the spelling of the term you used to describe the erratic, step like track of Matthew and other major hurricanes, so I’ll spell it how it sounded (cho-coy-tull) oscillations. M
Great explainer. How often do you post your video updates. You cover a great deal. Thanks
Thank you! I usually post daily when Atlantic storms are threatening land, and less often at other times.
Anxiously awaiting this evenings video!
Good morning Levi, can you please tell me is s Florida off the hook.
Unfortunately no, not yet. Impacts to Florida are still possible.
Any of the remnant energy from Matthew flowing into the new disturbance off to its East North East?
Great briefings young man!! Hard to believe you are just a grad student!! Too bad the Hurricane Center doesn’t have 12 hour briefings of this nature (they should!!).Anyway, great analysis and who knows, we might see you as one of the Hurricane Forecasters at the WX. Burro down the road!! Finally, great web site. You’ve done well, keep it up kid!!
We are starting to see a definitive Westward trend in several models (Euro and UKMET) including the balloon data supplimented NAM. Yikes!
https://mobile.twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/782942174421934081
https://mobile.twitter.com/TheSteveCop/status/782966234342158336
https://mobile.twitter.com/RogerAPielkeSr/status/782964427142287360
Examples via twitter as I am mobile.
I’m starting to see a westward trend starting to develop with the models? Is this a concern?
What is your general opinion of the likelihood of this Sandying into the mid-Atlantic at this point? I know it’s a pretty unlikely situation, but is it still on the table?
The cone of uncertainty is now bringing it more west than from an hour ago
Based on the recent shift to the west, the whole cost from FL to NC is going to be impacted. FL at the least should see strong onshore flow with increasing wave action. What will be interesting will be the trend of the guidance over the next 24 hours. It will not take much more of a westward drift to put Matthew right on the coast.
Any new update Levi?
Best forecaster! Look forward to the updates
No video update tonight Levi?
Levi’s Twitter shows that the update will be LATE Tonight.
I am anxiously awaiting your new video. I literally cried for the people of Haiti tonight. Matthew is already a “century” storm.
great video! thanks
Bathing Suits
It was created by statute and can be taken back through statutory action. The
idiotic lawsuit by the unions was an embarrassing
waste of everyone time and scarce dollars. Its another indication of why the rights were stripped in the first place.
Matthews, Aunt Mollie welcomes young Sammy who has come as an uninvited guest for dinner.
But it is clear from the outset that there
is no such thing as an uninvited guest to Aunt Mollie, who only wants to know why it has been almost a week since Sammy dropped by and is genuinely concerned that some
illness might have been the reason. Aunt Mollie, we learn, is
a surrogate mother to the teenage Sammy.
Bathing Suits LOL great whimsical touch, here! I guess we’re on opposite sides of the fence, however.
I do like raisins, as well as grapes, and wine. I don’t mind sour
cream on my potato but I won’t go out of my way for it
if I don’t have any. The details that you are not sure about,
you can fill them at the time of submission or seek help
from others.Step 2: Fill it upAfter filling the form, make sure that you attach all your documents and photographs (35×35 mm or 45×35 mm
4 each). The documents required are your age proof, permanent address proof, and
your address proof of Pune. For age proof, try to submit government recognized documents like PAN card, passport,
voter’s ID, driving license, ration card,
birth certificate, etc.Step 3: Gather all the documentsFor permanent address proof also, try to furnish government recognized documents like passport, ration card, electricity bill, driving license
containing address, voter’s ID, school leaving certificate, or any document which has your permanent address.For Pune address proof, you can give your
office address proof, rent agreement, driving license, etc.
Bathing Suits
cheap swimwear When selecting a belt to add to these dresses, never use one which is made to be worn with pants or jeans.
These belts often have a look which is not flattering to dresses.
Try to find belts which are thinner in design. Financial assets and
liabilities are measured at fair value using the three
level valuation hierarchy for disclosure of fair value
measurements. The determination of the applicable
level within the hierarchy of a particular asset or liability depends on the inputs used in the valuation as of the measurement date, notably the extent to which
the inputs are market base (observable)or internally derived (unobservable).
Observable inputs are inputs that market participants would
use in pricing the asset or liability developed based
on market data obtained from independent sources. cheap
swimwear
Women’s Swimwear Offers a free trial for 15 days, with a
price of $54.95 per year for unlimited backup after the trial ends.
Carbonite has a very easy means to determine if files have
been backed up; the addition of a green dot on icons in explorer.
Interestingly, Carbonite restricts backup until a subscription is
purchased by preventing the backup of music files during the trial.
Women’s Swimwear
Cheap Swimsuits Both sides. Sure, you expected to remain moderately civil but honesty >civility because there no hope of saving that relationship without it.
Same thing here. As for mass bans, ban evaders ruin it for the rest of you (and I
say there similar numbers of T_D ban evaders).
If reddit had any serious protection against ban evaders, we ban a lot less users and be more judicious in the bans we did give.
But given that we do get so many ban evaders (many frankly admit it),
we ban more readily. Cheap Swimsuits
swimwear sale It weird, but as bad as the old system was it was almost better
that way. We built friendships staying up way too late, yammering on about god knows what.
We had inside jokes for days. Just about every generation has had
a fashion that makes a statement, both about the person wearing
the clothes, as well as society. Many of the hippies who streamed
into Woodstock and the Haight Ashbury neighborhood of San Francisco during the 1960s wore bell bottom pants and
tie dyed shirts meant to convey a message of peace.
Subsequent generations of punk rockers and hip hop followers also decked themselves out in garb that sent messages, albeit
ones often more combative than that intended by the hippies
swimwear sale.