Tropical Tidbits — Tropical Atlantic May Heat Up – Disturbance to Approach Caribbean Late This Week

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Tropical Atlantic May Heat Up – Disturbance to Approach Caribbean Late This Week

Posted by Levi at 7:34pm on August 19, 2014

5 comments

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Comments

Mark says:

August 20, 2014 at 01:38

Great comentary as per usual! 🙂

HarryKane says:

August 20, 2014 at 02:15

Thank You Levi, Years ago we heard alot about decades of low activity then decades of much more activity with the formation of hurricanes. Is this thinking still with merit? Are there valid reasons for this? If so, maybe we are entering a low activity period?

Levi says:

August 20, 2014 at 12:44

The so-called “high activity era” started in 1995 when the AMO went positive, which makes the tropical Atlantic warm, and it has indeed been very active on average post-1995 relative to the 1965-1995 period. We expect the AMO to stay positive for another 5-10 years, but again this is on average. Quiet years still can and do occur. We’ve obviously had a couple recently.