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Tropical Depression #7 Forms – Flooding in Puerto Rico and Hispaniola Main Threat
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Funny how the westerlies showed up just in time to recurve Gabrielle. Since the season started late, it likely ends late.,
Lol….HAARP causing this unreal season? Levi, your up in Alaska, give us the inside scoop ha. But for real what a strange season it has been thus far.
since the season started late it will end late its not even started how on earth where do u get the idea its going to run late from?
the season hasn’t started? We are on the G storm. The death of all but one of the others was caused in part or wholly by land interaction. The lack of strong storms so far means there is plenty of energy left in the ocean and atmosphere to develop late season Caribbean/Campeche storms in late September and October.
The NWS is forecasting northeasterly winds over the Florida straights by this weekend. Northeast flow over Florida and the gulf are a red flag for tropical development in the Western Caribbean or Bay of Campeche and Northeast flow over Florida almost comes from high pressure moving out of Canada into the Northeast CONUS. Ahead of such high pressure is almost always a trough that would protect the eastern seaboard from anything coming from the east but pull development in the B.O.C or Caribbean northward.
We are on the G storm, but they were all pathetic tropical storms. None of them that stayed over water could sustain themselves for more than 3 days. ACE is at almost record low numbers and it’s a global problem. East Pacific still hasn’t had a major and the WPAC has a low ACE as well. Most tropical waves that come off Africa get ripped apart within a day. We’ll see if conditions improve but with the MJO being here, this is the best conditions we’ve had in the Atlantic the whole season. If nothing major comes out while the MJO is around, we’ll revert to the monumentally unfavorable Atlantic we had in August. This season has almost no analogy to relate to the inactivity because there is no el nino, and SST’s are warm(main causes of dud seasons) so we can’t really say whether the season will pick up or not.
The one area of the Atlantic Basin that has been less hostile for development has been the Western Caribbean/Bay of Campeche. The storms that developed in the western Caribbean and the B.O.C were strengthening when they made landfall. Assuming everything stays the same, it seems like a fairly good guess to assume we will get a few Opal or Andrea type storms this year. Also, Gabrielle looked fairly healthy and was developing nicely before being torn apart by Puerto Rico. We still have all of September and October left to go. September and October usually account for 70% of ACE.
I am wondering if the record low solar maximum has influenced tropical storm formation world wide.
@Nicknack: why do you think the season won’t run late?
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Levi: the official NWS forecast has an H5 to H2 low cutting off and moving westward towards Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico this week. How would this affect Remnant low Gabrielle if she doesn’t dissipate?
you might see something develop from now up to mid october but cause the season hasn’t really done anything hurricane wise it aint going to start october and finish december and have a burst of hurricanes if nothing starts in september i think the chances will be getting slimmer august september busiest 2 months
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