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Watching A Wave in the Central Atlantic – Still Waiting for the Atlantic to Get Active
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Thanks Levi.
Eric
Just wondering Levi,what happens if theirs no Hurricane during the year.What happens if anything to the heat in the ocean,.Since Tropical systems remove heat.Does the heat become latent.?Or does it just re cycle for the next year.
Global ACE can have ups and downs. We’ve been in a La Nina or ENSO-neutral since early 2010, so a lot of heat has already been taken out of the tropics just from that. In fact, it is prolonged periods of La Ninas and negative PDO phases that are commonly associated with low global ACE.
Thanks Levi, I am starting to think there is something out there that is putting the lid on development that is not totally understood at this time. Maybe we do have a higher than normal September but my guess is that the above normal season that has been predicted is out the window.
One other note is that the Tornado season and the winter season were dormant until a burst later in the season. October may be active more so than normal and this would not be good for Florida and the Southeast.
hi Levi, As you know I love the peaceful weather. Wouldn’t mind seeing another 40 month Enso neutral stretch like the few that occurred back in early days of ENSO tracking.
oh well so much for the over hyped active season
Levi, thanks for the update. I may be wrong but something is telling me that the lid is about to come off, and when it does- watch out!
So if the ‘experts” are right. We should get 8 hurricanes by the end of the season.
Hope not..I love it when they are dead wrong. Everyone talks too much anyway!
Thanks Levi. question. Isn’t that MJO burst over the east pacific causing more precipitation? If that is the case, then wouldn’t it be unsustainable because cloud cover, rainfall and upwelling from tropical systems cause the ocean to cool?
Using your analogy-The greedy brother can rob the fridge, but eventually the fridge runs out of food.
The longer we go without development, more energy will be be there when the lid comes off.
Well, tropical cyclones are good at cooling the upper ocean, but without major hurricanes out there, those waters will stay very warm for a very long time. You can see weeks of unending thunderstorm activity in one area of the tropics during the summer. It’s hard to cool the summer ocean substantially unless the water is shallow.
I don’t know if this is your area of expertise but I was wondering if you think the very weak 11 year solar maximum may be affecting tropical storm development worldwide?
Wow because this is great work! Congrats and keep it up
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