Eric Webb says:

Ok, thanks Levi, but let me add
The CFSv2 surface pressure spreads, interestingly showing some type of system
(Tuesday’s run)
http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2013/06/18/basis00/noat/sslp/13072000_1800.gif
(Monday’s run)
http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2013/06/17/basis00/noat/sslp/13071900_1700.gif
(Sunday’s run)
http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2013/06/16/basis00/noat/sslp/13071300_1600.gif
(Saturday’s run)
http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2013/06/15/basis00/noat/sslp/13071712_1500.gif
(Fridays run)
(About the exact same time frame, as in the other runs it hints at a long track tropical system, this time a very large tropical wave emerging off Africa, at least by this model’s standards.) http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2013/06/14/basis00/noat/sslp/13071712_1400.gif

Whatever tries to develop is certainly going to have quite a bit of support from the MJO, at least according to the ECMWF and ECMWF monthly
(ECMWF) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif
(EMON) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/EMON_phase_51m_small.gif
Now, what from I’ve read in some scientific papers on tropical cyclone genesis in relation to the MJO, especially for systems associated with African easterly waves over western Africa and the eastern Atlantic is that there is on average, a 5 day lag between when the MJO pulse arrives over this region of the globe and tropical cyclone formation. That seems to jive with general timing being given by the CFS around the 15-20th or so, which corresponds to the ECMF and the EMON’s timing of the MJO into octant 2 & 3 as we get towards the end of the first week of July or around the 10th or so.
Now, I’ve done even more digging into this pattern, and here’s the storms (tropical storm or hurricanes) that have actually were long track Cape Verde storms, we’ll just say east of the Lesser Antilles because I realize that the Berthas of 1996 & 2008 were anomalies, and even formation that far east is quite an accomplishment this early in the season.
Hurricane Bertha (2008), TS Chris (barely in July), (2006) Hurricane Emily (2005), TS Alex (1998), Hurricane Bertha (1996), TS Arthur (1990), TS Cesar (1990), TS Barry (1989), Hurricane Dean (once again, barely in July) (1989), TS Claudette (1979), TS Anna (1969), TS Ella (1966), Hurricane Arlene (1963), Hurricane Anna (1961), (did form east of the Antilles, but quite anomalous in that it became a major hurricane during July), Hurricane Abby (1960), TS Two (1944), TS Three (1933), Hurricane Five (1933), Nassau Hurricane (1926), Hurricane Two (1926), TS One (1917), Hurricane Three (1916), Velasco Hurricane (1909), TS Two (1901), Hurricane Three (1901) Carrabelle Hurricane (1899), (The storm was initially detected as already a category 1 hurricane over the eastern Caribbean. Given the intuition that this region of the tropical Atlantic is naturally a dead zone because of higher trade winds enforced between the Columbia Low & Bermuda High that get squeezed in between South America & the Greater Antilles, promotes surface divergence and has a tendency to disrupt surface circulations, thus I suspect the actual formation of this storm was much farther to the east, likely east of the Lesser Antilles)

What I found intriguing about these storm formations is that many of them seem to coincide with flips in the PDO & AMO oceanic cycles.
(link) http://oceanworld.tamu.edu/resources/oceanography-book/Images/pmo-amo.gif
AMO flip to its cold mode near 1900 coincides with Carabelle Hurricane of 1899, TS Two of 1901 and Hurricane Three of 1901. By 1915, there was a very brief AMO spike into its warm cycle, the PDO turned cold, this correlates to TS One (1917) & Hurricane Three (1916). Around 1925, the AMO & PDO both flipped into their warm cycles, not surprisingly we observed The Nassau Hurricane in 1926 and Hurricane Two in 1926. Just before 1935, the PDO briefly went into its cold cycle, corresponds to TS in 1933 and Hurricane Five in the same season. Then, just before 1945, the PDO went into its cold cycle which lasted through the late 1970s, in 1944 near the PDO flip we had TS Two. In the late 1950s, near 1960, the PDO briefly flipped into its warm cycle, corresponds to Hurricane Abby & Anna in 1960 and 1961 respectively. In 1964, the AMO went into its cold cycle that lasted until 1995, but the AMO was rather slow to enter its cold phase in the mid-late 1960s, and as a result 3 storms ocurred in this period, Hurricane Arlene (1963), TS Ella (1966), TS Anna (1969). Then, the PDO flipped into its warm cycle in the late 1970s also known as the “Great Climate Shift”, during this period in 1979 TS Claudette occurred. Around 1990, there was a rather sudden, but relatively brief flip in the AMO into its warm cycle (more than likely the reason for the landfalls of Hurricanes Hugo (1989) & Bob (1991) during this time period), this led to several July Cape Verde storms in 1989 & 1990. Then, the AMO finally flipped completely into its warm cycle in 1995, around this time, Hurricane Bertha (1996) formed. After the “super el nino” of 1998, the Pacific went through several years of la nina, that led to a period of cold PDO in the very late 90s and into 2000, TS Alex occurred during this general time period in 1998. The PDO continued in its overall warm state through the mid 2000s, then flipped fully into its cold cycle around 2007. Around this flip was Hurricane Bertha (2008), TS Chris (2006), and Hurricane Emily (2005).

Given that the AMO appears to closely follow the solar cycles http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/AMO%20vs%20TSI.jpg
And that the current solar cycle is anomalously low, I suspect that the AMO should soon tank into its cold cycle, thus, if this is indeed the case and a flip in the oceanic cycle flip is in order, then it makes a little more sense given other evidence and how favorable the conditions are at hand this year, to see a long track Cape Verde storm this July.