Support TT
TD 7 not a Significant Threat for Now; Atlantic Becoming Active
TD 7 has formed out in the central Atlantic, a bit farther north than Ernesto, but will be similar to Ernesto in many ways. Right now thunderstorm activity is limited to mostly SW of the center, and the center itself is mostly exposed. Dry air is impinging upon the system from the north, and the circulation is a bit elongated SW to NE. TD 7 is also embedded in a large-scale inverted-V wave signature, which is partially responsible for the elongation, and is resulting in a less robust circulation than what Ernesto had at this longitude. The short-term track will follow in Ernesto’s footsteps into the Caribbean, possibly a bit farther north, and the system will likely struggle for the next several days with dry air, wind shear, and fast trade winds making it difficult to maintain a closed circulation. Such conditions are prevalent often in the central Atlantic and central-eastern Caribbean during El Nino years such as this one.
I’ve decided to experiment with drawing my own forecast tracks to make my ideas more coherent. Below is my first attempt. My track closely follows the current NHC track on the southern side of the model guidance envelope, based on the previous poleward bias that the models had with Ernesto, and tend to have with weak central Atlantic systems in general. This track is also based on the premise that TD 7 will remain weak and get whisked along quickly westward by the trade winds, with little opportunity to strengthen and move poleward. While TD 7 may get named Gordon before reaching the Caribbean, strengthening of any kind will be hard to come by, and TD 7 could dissipate in the central Caribbean.
In the long-range, TD 7’s remnants may retain a mid-level signature and move towards central America and the western Gulf of Mexico into a potential opening in the ridge to the north. The CMC and GFS ensembles show TD 7’s mid-level wave structure taking this path in 7-10 days. Given the pattern this year favoring development farther west and north, it is possible that a former TD 7 getting into this region could pose a development threat down the road, though it is too far away to know at this time. In general, a southeasterly 500mb flow out of the Caribbean towards Texas indicates that tropical moisture will be advecting northward, and could be something to watch in the long range.
Elsewhere, a vigorous tropical wave has moved off of Africa and is moving across the Cape Verde islands bringing rare tropical rains to that area. Due to its northerly latitude, recurvature in to the middle of the Atlantic seems to be the likely future for this system, with no threat to land. Also due to its latitude, dry air is quickly choking the circulation, and development, if any, will be slow to occur, and the system will have to get significantly farther west and north if it is to have a chance at development.
We shall see what happens!
15 comments
« Previous Entry Next Entry »
Comments closed
Basic HTML is allowed.
Comments
As always, thanks Levi!
RE: When it comes to how banks value collateral, REO’s (and prepahs short sales too) are apples and non-REO’s are oranges. I’m not a big fan of mark to market, but if you believe in mark to market you should believe that if there are enough REO’s in the market place to get comps, the banks should use only those comps to value loan collateral.If banks view collateral as necessary to cover their potential loss in a defacto non-recourse environment resulting from non-judicial foreclosure laws, the only comps banks should care about are REO’s. Every SFH the bank has (or will have) for sale is an REO. There are additional risks associated with REO’s and the market discounts the price at least in part to hedge that risk. And face it, banks are liquidators and nobody shops at a liquidator unless they think their going to get a deal. When there are plenty of REO’s to use as comps, those should be the preferred comps for lenders who desire to fully collateralize their loan and properly protect their investment (the loan).Regarding this posts title, to me the term hair cut would normally apply to the loss by a single owner, not to the total decline over multiple owners. The entries used in the post are combining the banks loss with the loss of the foreclosed owner to reach a total haircut . I don’t have a problem with a little poetic license in the title of the post, but its really the total decline over multiple transfers and multiple owners.
I like the new track and intensity forecast #golevi!
onestamente,i resident evil vehcci li ho provati tutti sul gamecube, e posso dire ke l unica cosa che odiavo di questi giochi erano quei ***** di enigmi, per me soppravivere agli zombi vuol dire essere in citta o in una villa infestata da zombi e sparare per soppravivere ,non trovare una chiave con uno stemma e capire quale porta apre, comunque sono daccordo sul fatto che invece di fare uno sparatutto sui binari potevano essere dei remake dal n 0 al CODE VERONICA ,se poi riescono a darci un RESIDENT EVIL 5 per wii meglio ancora anke a costo di cambiare qualcosa sia a livello grafica e giocabilita
Thanks for keeping us updated Levi!
I like your new track points Levi… Thanks for the updates…
bahut sahi…Neeta ji ekdam sahi baat kahi… aur ekdam sahi mudda uthaya… aakjaal is net ke chakkar mei to pata nahi sabhi ko kya ho gaya hai…n specially females ka to aise logon se yunhi pala padta rahta hai…
By :What’s the Worst Home Price Haircut You’ve Found?“Here’s a fun property: 42905 SE 177th St in North BendSold in August 2003 for $570,000, then sold for the innsae price of $725,000 in April 2007, only to get taken back by the bank in July 2010. Now listed for $410,000.”1. What’s up with the sudden popularity of phrases regarding debt and suffering that include the word “haircut.” 2. A “FUN”property? What exactly is “fun” about this situation. How is an inflated “boom-era” price anything other than merely predictable why is it “innsae?” Please explain. Surely this kind of price history won’t surprise anyone who reads this blog.Did you contact the owner(s) of this property to get their story /stories? If you did, I missed it. Here’s my experience with this kind of “fun.” During the process to sell our home for $95,000 less than we had paid for it about a year previously, no one in my family ever thought they were having “fun.”No one in my family was snickering or wanting to start a contest to see who could come up with the most misery and sadness and grief. There was only a quiet sense of purpose, to pay down the mortgage before the home was sold, and a sense of sadness and loss, then a sense of moving on. No one thought it was “fun” to have their home advertised on the internet and their privacy compromised.OK, go for it fellas. Talk about how stupid you just know people like myself are. Throw in a few statistics and charts and hyperlinks. Talk all about how people like my family have caused all kinds of problems in the housing market even if it isn’t really true.C’mon, give it your best shot. I want to hear some really mean stuff, some wonderful, snarky, repeatable witticisms. Maybe put me in an indefensible position, then laugh at me for exposing my soft stupid underbelly. Bonus points for finding spelling/grammatical posting errors you can pick on.Ho-ho-ho you are so darn erudite and cool!You’re not going to hear anything mean or snarky from me. At least this time. There were a lot of perfectly reasonable, intelligent people who bought at or near the peak of the market.Including my sister and my son. For those people who have lost their homes or had to sell at a significant loss, there’s real pain involved and lots of stress. It’s not a matter of get over it and learn something , it’s real people we’re talking about. The media was blaring about how the market was different and this rally in home prices was going to go on for a very long time, and a lot of perfectly reasonable intelligent people believed it.
thanks Mr levi,living in the leeward (guadeloupe).Hope you right
with your track and intensity forecast.
ed un gran gioco Riguardo agli sparatutto su binrai, sono un modo pi sicuro per vendere videogiochi. E’ pi difficile fare un gioco di successo come RE4 in terza persona e venderlo ad un pubblico vasta. Per fortuna il porting di RE4 ha venduto di pi di REUC e spero che questo dia coraggio a Capcom per fare giochi simili a RE4 per wii, non necessariamente un porting di RE5 o Re6. ritornando a UC, penso sia un gioco divertente, non ai livelli di RE, ma cmq un buon gioco.
TD 7 has degenerated into an open wave this morning before even crossing the Antilles.
how are you!This was a really tefirric blog!I come from roma, I was fortunate to search your blog in googleAlso I obtain a lot in your website really thank your very much i will come every day
Good day!This was a really spleidnd Topics!I come from milan, I was fortunate to search your Topics in googleAlso I get much in your website really thank your very much i will come later
Resident Evil 2 il primo capitolo della serie al quale ho gicaoto, ed attualmente il mio preferito. Senza dubbi. Premesso questo, la mia opinione una: per quanto il comparto grafico sia notevolissimo per il Wii, la moderna mania di creare sparatutto su binari odiosa. Ok, una categoria di gioco che piace, senza dubbio. Ma non per Resident Evil. Per chi si chiedesse il perch (non credo molti, ma comunque mai dire mai), ricorderei al mondo (e alla capcom) che resident evil un alternanza di zombie lenti e macchinosi ed enigmi, enigmi, enigmi. Ed proprio quest’altalenarsi di gameplay (nonch la tensione onnipresente) che dava spessore alla serie. Ora riducono tutto ad uno spara e ammazza. Banale.
nell ultima iimagmne c il buon richard in versione zombie quanti ricordi povero richard dopo 10 anni e + ancora ridotto cos ,cmq sembra che gli eventi siano quantomeno simili a re 2 che nn sarebbe un male nn escludo a priori d prenderlo ma nn sono affatto contento che sia su binari,anche io preferivo il rebirth del 2 e nn con grafica ps2,vero wesker? se possono fare questa d grafica perch accontentarsi di quella ps2,direi basta rotaie e basta ps2ps ma densha de go che ha ragion d essere su binari nn lo fanno pal solo ntsc?