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[Sunday] Milton Strengthening; Expected to Bring Life-Threatening Impacts to Florida
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No AM update???
I am addicted, Dr Cowan
Thank you as always for your videos!
Have there ever been a hurricane that has taken this path across the gulf like this one is?
Off the top of my head, Charlie in 2004 and Ian in 2022.
I gave examples of similar paths across Florida. I see now you specified paths across the gulf. Apologies.
Yes it is hitting perpendicular instead of running parallel to the Florida and making a turn. I just do not ever remember this happening before and I am Florida native 50+ years.
Stay safe, this storm is intensifying faster than expected…
Wilma went east to west in late October 2005.
It didn’t start out in the Gulf, though.
and then Wilma came back from west to east to cross lower Florida again, as an unexpected cat 3
My wife grew up in St. Pete and she always says that never, ever, did they get impacted like the area has this year. Relatives have lost homes and cars from Helene. Can’t imagine what Milton might to. 😢
Dr. Levi: THX for your deep message. Outstanding.
Thank you, Levi. Everyone very nervous here in St. Augustine. Family and friends in St Pete lost houses and cars in Helene. Frightened for West coast, again.
Anybody understand why the hurricane specific models (HWRF, HMON, HAFS) all have this storm making landfall with a track above St. Pete, but local news and everything else is saying track is just south of Sarasota?
Probably cone uncertainty and how data analysis works in the models; HAFS-A and other hurricane models try to accurately take into account the structure of the storm but the NHC probably sees something those models don’t. The cone will probably shift and become more accurate as the storm approaches, so if you don’t have a plan already, now would be a great time to make one
It is “Business as Usual” because each model has a different “setting” for many, many variables.
As times pases, let’s say each day goes on:
IF the models have very different results, this means there is a LOT of uncertainity. There is something on the wheater:: Aire, Aire pressure, where is the cold comming, the air velocity (and many more varialbes). Creating this uncertainity.
On the other hand: IF you get same result with different models: This means there is much less unsertainity.
We are in year 2024: Is there such a thing as CERO unvertainity?. Nope. Hurricanes have no word of honor.
There are dozens and dozens of computer modeled track predictions. UKMET is regarded as one of the most historically accurate. The last I saw if was predicting a more southerly track possibly around Ft Meyers
I had read a couple of years ago that nighttime runs can be more ‘off’ than others. The 00z run of Ukmet did run south, but so far it looks like it is back up to Tampa area now.
I am truly astonished. This storm formed on SATURDAY and now it’s this
Keep in mind there are unseen things that direct, for instance mass consciousness, and manipulation 😉
Dr. Levi, have lived in Florida over 40 years, NEVER been so TERRIFIED of a HURRICANE like MILTON!! Thanks for your updates. PRAYERS FOR FLORIDA 🙏🙏🙏