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[6am Tuesday] Dorian not Moving Yet, but Expected to Stay Offshore of Florida; Threat to Coastal Areas of Florida, Georgia, and Carolinas
Dorian, so sadly for the Bahamas, still isn’t moving this morning.
As a result, confidence is now very high that Dorian will stay ~70 miles offshore of Florida once northwest motion finally begins later today. Hurricane and Storm Surge Warnings remain in effect north of West Palm Beach, and life-threatening impacts to the coast remain possible despite the storm being offshore.
Dorian is expected to get closer to South Carolina and North Carolina than it will to Florida, and a landfall there is possible Thursday or early Friday. The hurricane will become fatter on its northwest side as it comes up the east coast, so significant impacts such as flooding may occur even well inland. It remains to be seen how intact Dorian’s wind core will be on its way north, but the storm could potentially still have winds over 100 mph near the Carolinas. Storm surge remains the primary concern.
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Thank you, from WPB.
Levi
You da man!!!! Avid surfer who looks at your site at least 3 times a day. Just the facts, no frills.
Thank you. Sitting in Indialantic Fl. waiting. Lost a good amount of beach already.
But I’m sorry I just don’t believe anything anymore. It was supposed to move overnight, but still nothing. We are to believe now it’s going to start moving later today? A lot of us are done with all this forecasting and news coverage of essentially nothing (yes I realize it wasn’t nothing for the Bahamas. I am speaking solely of the U.S. right now).
The forecast has been very good so far. Very good. For a few days now, the most likely scenario has been slow movement in the Bahamas followed by a track close to but offshore of Florida. The “difference” you’re sensing is the increasing confidence. A couple days ago, the forecast was essentially the same, but we couldn’t be completely sure that a Florida landfall would not occur. Now we’re pretty darn sure.
I’m sorry but everyone I know thinks the forecasting has been awful. Maybe we are all crazy though and living in a different world. I really don’t mean to be mean. But we all thought this was gonna start yesterday, then yesterday was pretty much beautiful. Now today it is supposed to be pretty nice too? They have been having 24 hour news coverage, preempting local TV shows, and for what? A pretty sunshine day with a slight breeze. Everyone I know is done with it.
Never any hype on this site!
Levi only gives us facts with the subtlety nothing you should complain about here.
You’re right my frustration is with the thing in general and perhaps the comments I’ve read too. I still don’t think it’s gonna move though. Prove me wrong so I can have some faith in the forecasting.
More proof most media today is all hype and very few facts.
I hope everyone keeps this event in mind when AOC and her ilk start bleating about the world coming to an end in TWELVE YEARS due ti clumate change. Weather can’t even be predicted for the next TWELVE HOURS!!!!
Climate change deniers are bigger threats than anything else. Go burn some coal and soothe yourself.
100 million of dollars, the state of Florida, will lose in tourist business, eroded beaches, they should not expect America taxpayer to replenish ,let them go pound their own sands
Unfort you likely succumbed to the mainstream media coverage of these scenarios which starts with the headline then moves down from there. Make no mistake, before the past 12-24 hrs, this storms forecast details on exactly when and where it stalled where unclear. The difference of as little as 25-50miles could have night and day impact expectations for areas along the east coast of Fla. it is important to understand that if the storm made landfall along the Florida coast some of the worst case scenarios you’ve likely heard about could have happened. It’s important for the general public to prepare for the worst but hope for the best. Be lucky it hasn’t stated. In the future when a tropical system is approaching your area come on this site and follow along with Levi for the hype less crap you mostly get on some of the mainstream media outlets.
Levi, amazing job! Please don’ let the comment above effect you. Been in WPB since ’96 and this storm was unbelievable in many regards. But I found your assessments spot on and trust your explanations emphatically! If the poster above had any experience they would not be posting such drivel….and “everyone they know”. Well done man! You gave us a sense of calm and collect in an insane situation. I for appreciate your skill and demeanor. Hate to think what we’ll do when you leave FSU. Your intellect is much needed in today’s media hype environment. I am grateful I had you as a resource in this crazy storm.
Is the weakening due to a eyewall replacement or just the fact that dry are is weakening it?
I’m pretty confused myself. I’ve been watching live feeds from various hotel cams on the islands. It doesn’t look like I would have expected over the last three days. Here is the only one that hasn’t been turned off at this point. https://www.portnassauwebcam.com/
Hi. I live in Florida and I know it is frustrating and worrying. But really, we have got to keep perspective. Our troubles pale in comparison to our neighbors in the Bahamas. There are houses blown away, people drowned, jobs destroyed. That could have been us… or could be us in the future.
We also have people in our country who are scrambling to get out of harms way. My family in SC has to evac today. It is a costly and somewhat dangerous activity as well.
I write a hurricane preparedness blog and I posted late last night something on this very topic. https://hunkerdown.guide/dorian-relief-evacuations-and-weather-resources/ In it I have some good charities who will get help to the Bahamas – It helps to put the situation into perspective to be fortunate enough to help others.
Levi and a (very) few other sites out there help to explain what is happening. The models are super complex, scientifically based programs that give us a range of possibilities. That helps us to plan and prepare, but they can never tell us exactly what is going to happen. Dorian could just decide to start heading due west, or south, or east, or north… I remember a few that have done weird things. But the likely scenario is what the NHC must come up with.
One suggestion is to not watch the TV weather. Nothing against the professionals who work on those products. But the constant drone of gloom and doom scenarios and actual terrible events can cause even the most sane person to get anxiety or worse.
So thank you for bring up this topic, and I hope you find some peace of mind. Levi, keep up the great work.
Peace, Jamie
Hurricane Karen would like to speak to the manager of the weather and complain because it is “beautiful” and “a pretty sunshine day.” Meanwhile, the Bahamas are being absolutely ravaged and people (children) have died and are losing everything they have. I understand the frustration and stress that comes along with these storms as I’ve lived in Florida my whole life but any reasonable, rational adult understands that there will always be a degree of uncertainty and the information provided on this site always highlights that fact. Instead of complaining here, I would be thankful that the area you’re in hasn’t had to suffer like the Bahamas has and focus my energy on something more productive- like supporting those who haven’t been as fortunate or supporting this site for providing concise but informative predictions.
If you were to watch Levi’s videos you would see no hype – only facts. Based on the best information possible at the time, he factually provides all the alternatives – so that YOU can be prepared. Just because you’re ignorant to what is going on and cannot comprehend does not mean that these hard working meteorologists are not doing the best they can with probably one of the toughest storms to predict.
Forecasting has been awful? I’d like to see you take 7 years of meteorology and physics and do better. We’ll see how easy it is then. Shame on you with your thoughtless comment.
Thanks for all your hard work Levi.
You could thank fake news for that but please keep on hoping for the best for the Bahamian people
I bet you voted for Trump lol
the forecasts have been on point acutally. windy.com, tropicalupdates.org as well.
Forecasting is a imprecise science. Meteorologists don’t come down from on high like a Moses and commanded the weather. I know it was a tense time in South Florida, but you all should be grateful that Florida is not in the dire situation of the Bahamas. And, Levi is the best of the best of meteorologists. We are lucky to have his blog.
Forecasting by definition is imprecise, science is much less so.
What is predictible, however, are the greenies blaming Global Warming for Hurricane patterns and the destruction they cause. Just stop it already.
If you try to understand the science, and Levi is great at explaining things, then you will know more and not spout off statements like this. Forecasting is still not an exact science and you should count your blessings it is as good as it is today due to sophisticated computer modeling and real-time scientific measurements. When multiple variables interact to achieve a result, and each of those variables is also influenced by multiple other variables, there is sometimes room for error in forecasts out three and four days in advance. And intensity forecasting is still not predictable. I’m not usually one to tell people to sit down and be quiet and let the adults in the room handle things, but your post just illustrates that there is a strong sense of entitlement that ignorant people show sometimes because they don’t take the time to educate themselves.
The people who complain most about the current awful state of hurricane forecasting; are the ones who have made zero effort to learn about weather basics. In essence, they are really complaining about how ignorant they are, without making any effort to educate themselves. Like its the weatherman’s fault that you’re too unschooled to follow him.
Good God, you’re obnoxious.
100% agree with your comment. I feel bad for Levi’s site, which is directed towards other professionals in the field, getting run down with ignorant people and posting nonsense.
Well, it’s moving now 🙂
Love your site, Levi.
Its not the forecast, rather its the decisions made interpreting the forecast by responsible parties to ameliorate the storm’s damage that rankle the public.
Then why hock Levi with your nonsense.
So, it moved, when they said it would.
Your post is so juvenile…you should be on your knees in thankfulness that you’re only inconvenienced with a preempted tv show, a slight breeze and sunshine.
Levi, thank you. You always provide quality no nonsense scientific reporting.
Thank you for educating people of the use (and misuse) of models, their application, and the role of uncertainty. We have become accustomed to seeing highly precise forecasts with hidden variability.
You are doing great explaining the mechanics of the system and the simulation engine.
I’ve been watching this for days. Was turned on to your site by Mikes weather page page. And I will save your site for future monitoring of storms. I especially enjoy reading your explanations of why, why not. I agree that this hurricane has done very close to what has been predicted of it. What are your predictions for wind speeds/gusts for the area between North Miami and Ft Lauderdale for today and tomorrow?
Hello,
I wanted to make a comment that your summary and YouTube every nite about Dorian is just fantastic. I especially appreciate the arrows drawn and various explanations of what is happening 3D. It certainly helps understand the whole “picture”. Keep going!
Anonymous,
I am perplexed to read that you do not believe anything anymore.
The weather forecasters have been highly accurate regarding the projected path of this storm.
I have been following the forecasts since Thursday. At that time the forecaster were predicting Dorian would begin its north/northwestern track when it reached the Freeport, Bahamas area.
Well, that is exactly what has happened. Dorian reached the Freeport area, stalled, and is now beginning to move northward.
Also, all of the variances in the track have been within the cones. People are still relying too much on the track line and not understanding that the track can vary anywhere within the cone and still be right on forecast.
It’s not possible to have an exact forecast! This one was particularly tricky. Tropical Tidbits does an amazing job of interpreting the data.You need to stop whining and be thankful for what we do have. We’re talking weather here, changes can happen in seconds.
Near West Palm Beach around 6 o’clock, 10 ft waves and higher, and winds gust at hurricane level, and tornado’s spun by Dorian ,all through the overnight, you will not be disappointed
You clearly haven’t been paying attention to this site then. The ECMWF model had this exact track nailed down like 5 or 6 days ago, which is pretty damn good when it comes to hurricanes.
Look at the ECMWF from August 31st:
https://imgur.com/a/UAEQf1C
That is almost exactly what has happened so far. Also, it has started moving today. You aren’t supposed to “believe” anything. These are predictions and they come with disclaimers as such. These are the best we can do with the science of our time. That said, they’re pretty darn good a lot of the time. Modern meteorology has saved countless lives.
Because of the stationary position upwelling water seems to have snuffed the core for now. What happens as it moves over the Gulf stream we will see.
Thanks for all that you do Levi ! How soon do you think we will get the all clear in central florida? I work in healthcare and every day we are coming in and being told we have to stay the night, then at 4 pm they let us go, but they told us we had to stay tonight regardless!
Levi, I stumbled onto your website from Drudge and shared it with all my friends. Thank you for your informative, refreshing “just the facts” style that helps me understand why Dorian is stuck over the Bahamas, and what we can expect in the days to come.
Just a tidbit I heard from Senator Scott yesterday: “hurricanes historically travel differently from the projected cone area two out of three times”. Sounds about right to me.
That is backwards. It travels in the cone 2/3 of the time and out of it 1/3 of the time.
Figures: that was from Scott the long term global warming denier. But this site is more important and NOT about trolling in general.
Suggest you do not read the comments and only follow Levi’s excellent videos. Never learned so much about steering, troughs, etc. as I have in just a few days of watching here.
Thank you for revealing your thoughts on short term climate variations; as you recognized such musings are insignificant when compared to the storm’s intensity.
It all depends on the intensity of the storm A storm this powerful the mathematical equations are just not in place or proving yet To be inserted reliably into any model
The strength of a storm is only one important variable in forecasting its path, as evidenced with Dorian… a historically strong storm with its path determined, as with every change in weather, by high and low pressures altitude differentials.
The Drudge reference explains all the wackadoos who have magically appeared here today.
The cone has a 198 mile error at 5 days and a low error rate of 26 at 12 hours
Thank You for being so caring … ou make it a lot easier knowing what’s really going on …
Hey Levi. I’m curious if you have ever heard about a recent inclination that increased geomagnetic storm activity from coronal hole streams and CME events from the sun have both direct and indirect links to tropical cyclone activity and tropical cyclone rapid intensification events such as what we saw Dorian do a few days ago. I realize that there are many local(terrestrial) environmental factors at play as well but curious if you’ve seen any of the more recent information bringing the suns activity into the already complex equation. Thanks
I really appreciate your detailed explanations. The crazy person above that is complaining about the inaccuracy of the forecasts obviously has not paid attention to what you have said…… You (and even mainstream media) has consistently said on this one that no one could really predict how this could impact FL, GA, etc. until it completed its stall and turned North, which would unfortunately be too late to take action at that point. Thanks again for your insight!
Here in Jax and excellent discussion as always. Having been in Dora and beyond it is very difficult even in 2019 to “predict” exactly where and when. Thanks for all the insight!
Great site. Very user friendly. This has been my go-to site when there is trouble brewing in the Atlantic or gulf. Besides learning something new everyday, I like how all the important info is laid out and easy to access.
Levi, I want to take a moment to thank you for bringing some calm and focus into hurricane prediction. I hope you continue this work going forward. I have been using Wunderground for years, but now you are my new go to site. You are literally helping thousands of people understand and make better decisions regarding hurricanes and how it will affect them. Best and thank you from Vero Beach. Wallace 🌬🌬🌊
Levi, your forecasting to date has been good in predicting the whims of a catastrophic hurricane. My experience with them living on the Texas coast has been to expect the unexpected. I am seldom surprised by the actual path’s of these storms, because I pay attention to what’s happening with the daily updates and photo’s provided. If others choose to bah humbug your information, then they will only sit out ONE Hurricane, that I will guarantee.
Thanks Levi, My sister’s family lives on Merritt Island. I’ve been following your analysis. Keep up the good work!
The weather channel says the impact of Dorian on the low country will be less than the storm surge of Matthew…..and we got basically no flooding here in Beaufort from that Himicane. So unless this thing does another turn to the West we should be pretty much in the clear! We got 9 inches of rain with Matthew starting on a Friday, and by Sunday afternoon you couldn’t even tell it had rained! The wind was less that hurricane force but did bring down about 300,000 trees, most of which were water oaks and should have been pruned anyway!
You are referring to Beaufort, SC. But Beaufort, NC did get some flooding down town with Florence but I don’t know if it did with Matthew.
Learning a lot from Levi, thanks.
Excellent work Levi!
Levi-I am impressed. This is my first hurricane and after listening to all the hype on The Weather Channel, I started to realize I just had to listen just for NHC updates and nothing else. I just found you today thru my local Indian Harbour Beach Nextdoor. It was so refreshing to listen to it broken down without all the voice inflection trying to drive the anxiety. So much money was spent by people that really could’t afford it due to all that hype that started so early. Thank you for breaking it down so that we could understand.
I sent the following this morning to the News Director at Eyewitness News in the Bahamas – I wanted to share it with you:
I wanted to start your day with some good news about Dorian. Although it still sits about where it was throughout last night, the latest Water Vapor images of the storm show the eye of the hurricane filling in with clouds, and as of 8:40 AM Eastern (12:40 Z), there is no longer a distinct eye to the storm.
What this means to you is that the inner core structure of the storm is collapsing. With this collapse will come an accelerated weakening of the storm’s winds. As of the 5 AM EDT NHC Discussion, winds had dropped to 120 MPH, about 20 MPH less than when I participated in your coverage last night.
In that discussion, NHC said that they expect the hurricane to remain at the current intensity for the next 24 – 36 hours. However, the eye still existed when that discussion was written; the eye filled-in and disappeared almost 4-hours after its composition.
By 10 AM EDT, the winds had dropped to 115, and the central pressure had risen to 954 millibars, and I expect it to climb some more as the day progresses.
Exactly what will happen to the winds is a matter of conjecture – Cat 4 hurricanes, well, a Cat 3 now, don’t usually see this eye filling. Like everything else about Dorian, it is a highly unusual occurrence.
I am going to call you between 10 – 10:30 AM Eastern to find out if I can be of further service to the Eyewitness News team. If nothing else, I can send you some hyperlinks to illustrate what is happening with Dorian to give a better understanding, and thus, through knowledge, remove some of the unknowns that contribute to the fear of surviving Dorian.
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING EYE COLLAPSE – as of 12:40 Z / 8:40 AM EDT
https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/car/AirMass/20192460300-20192461240-GOES16-ABI-CAR-AirMass-1000×1000.gif
Moving your mouse over the animation will shift the focus of the animation and enlarge its size.
I’d also like to draw your attention to the dark area in the upper left corner of this animation: That is the trough that is heading south that will kick Dorian NW, then N, and finally NE over the next 3 – 4 days. Please keep your eye on this since it will be the factor that moves Dorian away from your nation.
Levi,
Be the Drudge of Weather!
Stay independent, don’t lower your standards, and don’t get trapped in a crummy job!
I remember that the weather channel sold for mega millions. People are hungry for good information. You are the man!
Levi — I agree with Duncan… You could be great and provide a great benefit to everyone, if you can figure out what is your specific talent and value that only you can bring. Feature that, and you will have a lot of fun and little of the grief that would come if you became “super successful”. Some here have captured what I thought:
— Simplicity and not presenting more information than required: Remember, that most everyone else has the goal of consuming as much of the readers’/listeners’ time as possible. [Weather Channel is best example of a time-waster.] Your goal should be the opposite.
— 30 years or more ago, I was a pilot that took some folks snorkeling in Marsh Harbor. I called home to hear this weather report 2nd hand, and NOT the FAA: The AM report given on ABC TV by one of the [ironically] founders of Weather Channel, who could best summarize the US weather in 30 seconds. The forecast helped immensely, as I forged through violent thunderstorms just off West Palm Beach.
— Education — To set expectations, you might have to find a way to convey better context for what you are providing: Intelligent probability. To you, the stalling was not unexpected and totally within the margin of our current technology. But, many will now ignore all forecasts as a result, (so they say now at least).
Most of the public have never been taught enough to understand how to absorb “forecasts”, let alone use the cost/benefit ratios that must be applied if using these forecasts.
I’ve got two videos here, both from houses in Freeport “observing” the hurricane live. One was on stilts, the other was not. Are stilts “worth it”?? Yes if riding out the storm:
— One scary night: https://twitter.com/MorrisMedici/status/1168570843754049538
— > vs < —
— Home with a panoramic oceanside 360 degree view — Amazingly well built!
— House on 15' stilts and a (now) 360 Degree beachfront house in Freeport, Grand Bahama
— Take a walk through this amazing home with the owner during a Cat 4 hurricane.
— https://youtu.be/ZM6Ld3CdHXY
This has been the BEST site for concise factual assessment of current facts available. I have made it a ‘go-to’ place for information regarding this storm – and will be sure to follow it for future events.
Levi, many thanks for your calm, clear explanations of weather events. I have learned so much that I can now understand a lot about why a weather system (not just Dorian) behaves as it does, and can share with family members.
now dorians probability of moving is higher, how wide are the hurricane force/tropical s winds. i know it has grown in size but that important information is seemingly very hard to find. \o/
Levi, I have been watching your commentary during hurricane season for a couple of years now and wanted to express my thanks and sheer admiration for what you do. In a world of hype and hyperbole, your explanations/presentations of the available data and “no drama” approach are very refreshing. Keep up the great work!
Love your site and your updates. Having property in Topsail Island NC makes me an unwanted Hurricane Junkie haha. I somewhat agree that most forecasters missed this storm in respect to early on when they said it was gonna die over Hispaniola. And then again when they said it would cross over Florida. Lots of people on TV want ratings and bad news sales. Levi does a real good job of showing the options. Thanks for all you do
Levi! Please, do not sell your soul to the weather channel! No matter what they offer you, stay independent! Only now are some of them admitting that the dry air coming from the West will break up this cane and keep it from having a catastrophic impact on the low country! Sure, reversing the lanes made it easy to evacuate….but coming back in when they give the all clear sign will be a nightmare on elm street!
Just found out about this site a few days ago.
Wonderful reporting and great impartial presentation of the alternatives so people can make genuinely informed decisions on the level of preparation required to keep people and property safe.
Thank you Levi.
[…] beyond Cat 5. After stalling over and devastating portions of the Bahamas, he has lost strength as steering currents remain uncertain, but less likely to impact Florida’s orange industry. The price is still worth watching […]
Any updates ⊙﹏⊙
Yes, Levi any updates for tonight?!!?
I had to leave my boat hauled out in Freeport and fly to the United States ahead of Dorian. I’m very grateful for your coverage, amazing work. I use everything from the NHC, NWS, SailFlow/Windy, pull tides info from Navionics, listen to Chris Parker, you and Bahamian TV. Buddy, your analysis is my mainstay. Here is my question? What about surge in Freeport. My boat is on the south side 26 degrees 29.668N and 78 degrees 41.521W at Knowles Marin / Running Mon. Telling me what is going on, sure ain’t your job, but I’m asking because I don’t know who else to ask and I don’t expect email contact with the yard owner for sometime. I left my boat behind, it’s my baby, anything you can say, good news or bad, it would help me.
Josh
Levi, keep up all the great work ! I shared your update with friends this weekend, who were floored with the amount of detail you give and how what appears to insignificant weather patterns (to the untrained eye) and water temperature can have a dramatic impact on the storms path.
Hi Levi, great job! I love your attention to detail and you present the information from multiple sources in one, easy to absorb site. The ones who are upset in this comment chain obviously are not taking into account that weather changes and predicting the weather is always an uncertainty. I was born in Florida and have been through multiple hurricanes both in Florida and the Bahamas and even with the advanced prediction technology we have, it is always a best guess with the given variables. If people don’t like the current state of storm predictions and how it effects their lives, then I encourage them to PLEASE move out of hurricane effected states. I think Florida needs a wall rather than Mexico.
Hurricane Katrina had floodwaters of 28 feet, with waves reaching 35 feet as documented by the debris left behind. Hurricanes push, and pull water, the longer Hurricane Dorian is over water, the more water that will be brought ashore wherever it gets close to, or if the hurricane actually makes landfall. I have seem meteorologist say that this will not be a landfall hurricane, this bothered me greatly, but pass close by.
New Orleans’ main problem with Katrina were levee breaches – very poor infrastructure that had been ignored for a long period of time.
Katrina also caused massive amounts of damage in Mississippi from storm surge.
Lorenz is famous for his role in the development of chaos theory, which was popularized through ideas like the butterfly effect. But Lorenz found that, while chaotic systems are extremely sensitive to initial conditions, many had a tendency to gravitate towards a limited set of conditions. For example: it’s impossible to predict the weather in New York on a given July day, it’s safe to expect that it will be warm.
Excerpt of Mandelbrot: Art, math, science, and works in progress by John Timmer
John Timmer is Ars Technica’s science editor. He has a Bachelor of Arts in Biochemistry from Columbia University, and a Ph.D. in Molecular and Cell Biology from the University of California, Berkeley.
The previous(above) on Lorenz was by John Timmer
Thank you, Levi! This site is excellent and I recommend it to everyone.
A limited set of conditions is climatology, including rainfall averages.
Hurst was correct, as Mandelbrot delineates, in proper planning for floods.
Levi’s analysis is spot on and integrated with data from the models. Thank you.
Yes, Levi is amazing in his detailed, professional analysis of the tropical forecast. He and his site is a breath of fresh air over the likes of TWC and “Accuscare” and also the supposedly ego-maniac legend JB. Levi, don’t stop what you are doing. Stay independent and don’t sell your soul to the devil.
Your site is my number 1 “go-to” each hurricane season!
Thunderstorms will approach St. Augustine and Jacksonville from the ENE, the E, and the SE!
Further south, energy and heavy thunderstorms are noted from an area low on previous 365 day rainfall offshore Melbourne north to Palm Coast!
Thanks, Levi! I love your videos.
Power outage reported at Daytona Beach at highway A1A!
Impacts in Bahamas were BAD