Kd4jrx says:

Levi look’s like TAE NWS FCST Discussion says it all…

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
428 PM EDT TUE JUL 9 2019

.NEAR AND SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]…

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE
REGION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, INFLUENCED BY THE ELONGATED
UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG DAYTIME HEATING
AND PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD
STORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID-EVENING HOURS BEFORE STORMS
DISSIPATE. A BRIEF LULL IN STORMS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT. THE NORMAL LAND-BREEZE CIRCULATING BACK
OUT TO THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONVERGENCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. THIS,
COUPLED WITH ANONYMOUSLY WARM GULF OF MEXICO TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY YIELD IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR STORM IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN
INDICATING ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER LAND WILL
ENHANCE THE SEA-BREEZE ON WEDNESDAY, YIELDING BANDS OF EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
STORMS WILL HAVE DECENT FORWARD MOTIONS, CUTTING DOWN ON RAINFALL
TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA.

THE TIMING OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE LOWER
AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ALONG WITH THE POSITION OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH TO THE EAST AND RETREATING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST TO THE EAST
WILL BE KEY FACTORS IN THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM INTO THE
LONG TERM.