Joel Lanier says:

Levi,

Thanks again for a well thought out and detailed presentation.

As a point of reference (Hurricane Dennis 2005) (I was working at WFO Tallahassee at that time), generated a huge storm surge well east of the center of Dennis. WFO Mobile has a real good write up on it. At that time, we didn’t understand the idea of a baroclinic shelf wave affecting water levels and helping to enhance storm surge.

I’m not certain if the concept was validated. I seem to recall hearing there was some debate on the idea. But it makes sense to me, that if a Tropical system with a long southerly fetch moves at just the right speed to create a southerly wind surface wind stress along the west coast of Florida, that could amplify the height of a storm surge into Apalachee Bay.

I was present when we discussed what to forecast for Storm Surge for Apalachee Bay as Dennis approached. I can tell you, that with the tools we had, we just didn’t know that it was going to do that.

So, here we are again. Agreed the projected track for Michael is slightly different than Dennis. But I am concerned we could have another Dennis episode.

Maybe you know of some good Storm Surge model that has since been developed that addresses this. If not, at least, it may be a good idea to highlight the potential for significant storm surge in Apalachee bay, far removed from the landfall of the center of Michael, just based on the geometry of the track.

Thanks for listening.

https://www.weather.gov/mob/dennis

I believe COAPs researched