[May 14] Disturbance in Gulf of Mexico Bringing Rain to Florida and Southeast U.S.

   Posted by Levi at 11:24am on May 14, 2018

An area of surface low pressure has developed in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, entangled with an upper-level low. The system remains broad and disorganized this Monday morning, with only scattered convection and multiple vorticity maxima at various vertical levels. As a broad upper low or trough remains over the Gulf of Mexico over the next few days, wind shear will be low enough to allow potential organization of this disturbance. Given weak steering currents, the system is expected to drift north or northwestward, eventually moving inland over the Florida panhandle in 2-3 days. This length of time could allow the low to acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics, and the National Hurricane Center currently gives a 40% chance of this occurring.

Regardless of how much this system develops, periods of heavy rain will continue in the Florida Peninsula, and will spread northward into the Florida panhandle and parts of Alabama, Georgia, and the Carolinas over the next few days.

IR Satellite Image as of 11am EDT Monday:

Forecast Additional Rainfall Through Thursday Morning:

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