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[Saturday Morning] – Irma Raking Cuba – Dangerous Weather Already Impacting South Florida
Latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center on Hurricane Irma
Visit the National Hurricane Center for the latest information on Hurricane Katia and Hurricane Jose.
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Thanks for the update Levi! Always very informative.
Thanks for the update, Levi! There are a lot of evacuees and residents on the western panhandle worried that the turn will come much later than the models anticipate. Would you mind explaining why that is unlikely? It would reassure many who have come here for safety.
This hurricane’s goin into the gulf!!!
You a meteorologist?
Read his CV on the about page.
Great job Levi
Kudos from Jim cantorri from the weather channel, your future is going to be grand. Thanks again for all your hard work and dedication.
I cannot tell you how much your updates are appreciated! Thank you so much! Do you think you could speculate on how severe the impacts to the Savannah area will be in terms of wind and rain? Will it be worse than what we experienced with Matthew?
Thank you Levi for your concise, informative and educational reports. Particularly your admonition to ignore the cone, this storm is far larger in size and longer in duration than Charlie was in 2004, how quickly we forget.
Levi–/ if we are in a concrete block home and have hurricane rated windows but no hurricane shutters and we are NOT in a surge zone or an evacuation zone, will we be safe riding this out in our home or should we leave?
Would entirely depend on where that building is and what conditions you’re facing.
I think you are going to be okay. There may some roof damage but you shouldn’t have any issues with house collapse.
And thank you so much for your calm reporting…
Yes! Yes! and Yes! I just recommended Tropical Tidbits because Levi offers all the info with none of the drama.
Agree! He’s so factual, empathic and informative.
Agree to all of the above!
Even my husband thinks this is fantastic. Thank you, Levi, younare the calm before the storm.
Sending this from the Italian island of Ischia: the surf is pounding outside like we’ve never seen. It must be connected to this but we don’t know how.
We will be donating: the service you’re providing is so important and helpful. It’s the way you deliver even the scariest parts in your calm voice, very grateful.
My family and I are stuck in Tampa. I’ve taken precautions to be safe, but I still fear for our lives. Thank you for these updates, I really like knowing what’s going on in an emergency!
Can you have some more discussion on the steering currents. Looking at some of the products from the Navy they are not predicting as much of a turn. It seems that the storm is so large right now that it has considerable inertia and able to influence it’s own path. Is there a timeframe that will tell you if it will make its turn.
You can actually see the approaching shortwave trough on water vapor imagery diving down over Louisiana toward the SE. I think this is the feature (a counter-clockwise, positive vorticity) that will eventually help steer Irma to the NW and NNW/N. The models are tightly packed over the next 48 hours…and it will take just short of 18 hours to reach the Keys at 9 mph…so still time to regenerate.
Thanks mBoutte, very helpful explanation.
Thank you, Levi, for your calm, cogent explanations of the tropical weather patterns. Someone mentioned you on the Wunderground blog about a year ago and I’ve been following you ever since. I wish the other weather forecasters could take a cue from you in how well you explain things for us commoners to understand without all the underlying histrionics. Thank you, once again!
Thank you, Levi.
I want to touch on something, Irma is carrying with her debris from the Caribbean Islands she destroyed. I vividly remember debris that washed ashore with a 1998 hurricane that was not American items, old, and I mean old refrigerators, and other things from homes that the hurricane washed ashore. These things can damage, and destroyed what it would impact, when the tidal surge washes ashore.
A refrigerator being carried from the Caribbean in the tidal surge is a battering ram.
thank you!!! excellent resource, you!!
Is the Euro indicating a mid atlantic threat from Jose?
The nullschool website shows a long range forecast of Jose looping around then getting huge and heading for the Chesapeake around Sept 18. Where’s that data source from?
Levi… with Harvey you quit updating when it made landfall
Will you please continue your updates until Irma and others dissipate below TS strength. You’re analysis is WAY better than
anyone I’ve watched. Appreciate ya bro.
That might be difficult as I live in the Florida panhandle and am likely to lose power myself when Irma moves into northern Florida.
Please stay safe!
Oh Levi stay safe! Not telling you what to do, but maybe evacuate??
Levi,
Just want to say thank you again…;for your incredible knowledge and dedication. You’ve been given a gift for doing this work and you use it well. Stay safe there (you are still at FSU, yes?).
Thank you Levi! Sure miss the old WU!! Sitting here on the panhandle watching Irma as she as trended to the west… A few boats have come up into our little bayou seeking shelter. Destin Harbor is still trying to decide whether to have the Fishing Fleet to move. Again thank you!
Levi – Just wanted to say that I’ve become an avid follower of yours. I have already become reliant upon your updates. Your calm (er) manner, and professionalism, draws the listener in..and keeps us returning! Excellent job at explaining the science, without mass media hyperactivity. I’ve finally found gr8 wx coverage based on just the known facts, along with explanations of the possible variables. Thank you for your hard work. I look forward to continuing to ‘follow you’ after this ‘event’. Thank you so much.
We are being told in Savannah that it is going to be worse than Matthew. Matthew was only 30 miles off the coast as a cat 2. We are told a surge of 15 feet with this storm. How is this possible?
Levi,
You did not discuss the steering flow. Is the thinking still the same as far as the ridge and the trough? I live in the western Florida Panhandle and am interested in knowing if there is any chance the center of circulation could move further west causing storm surge problems in my area.
thank you Levi
There is a limit on how far Irma can come west because of a little upper trough that will be sitting over Pensacola when Irma starts moving north. The hurricane can’t really move into that trough, but will move around the eastern edge of it, so it can only come so far west. Getting west of Tallahassee just doesn’t seem possible here, but of course the storm is huge and impacts will extend well west of the center anyway.
Thank you Levi. We are prepared for wind just needed to know if would need to run from water. Thank you for being the voice of reason during this emergency.
Any chance of pulling a turn back to the east?
Levi – thank you! I’ve lived through several hurricanes. No one has ever posted information and reports as well and as thoroughly as you. You are very intelligent and articulate, and the information and updates that you give are unsurpassed. You’re the BEST! Thank you for all that you are doing to try and inform and help people to deal with this very dangerous hurricane.
My brother and sis-in-law evacuated from ST Augustine to seaside…I’m worried now! Should they leave? Thanks!
Thanks for making all these updates. You are saving lives and educating people at the same time. Thanks a lot
I’ve been reading/watching your updates for years and was wondering if this is your closest personal encounter with a major hurricane?
Yes – I was hit by Hermine last year, but this could be worse.
Thanks Levi. Your updates have been super informative and have offered console to many of us up here in NC. Keep up the great work!! God bless.
Prayers out to all those affected by Irma and Harvey.
Thanks for your site Levi ! Don’t know if its been mentioned…With my amateur eye, it appears The JMA modeler on your site has been spot on with Irma’s path since Tuesday.Any thoughts?
Any chance of storm surge in the western panhandle / Mobile bay? It seems like the forecast tracks for this storm have repeatedly been revised westward
No updates, this evening?
He said later tonight st end of this am blog
Seems to be almost stalling in forward motion.
Irma still holding to west northwest at 9 knots all day, as the pros say it will turn.no 2047 and no turn,
,how quickly can aypuch a large storm pivot?
Rocky:
Doesn’t look good for Tampa! People need to get out now!
https://www.washingtonpost.com/classic-apps/tampa-bay-is-due-for-a-major-hurricane-it-is-not-prepared/2017/07/28/8198dc50-6655-11e7-9928-22d00a47778f_story.html?utm_term=.85968b0a69d6
Just discovered this site today. I’ve been trying to gather info as I have family on the gulf coast. This is by far the best source of information I have found. It is thorough, detailed, and calm. Thank you, Levi!
Levi, I appreciate you giving us the actual weather and not dumbing it down into forecasts meant to invoke fear. Looking forward to your next update on the Tampa, FL area.
Fascinating storm dynamics at play here. With Irma moving so slowly and being so large, that almost negates the potential for the storm to re-intensify. Sea surface temperature has dropped as a result of persistent cloud cover.
However, now that the inflow is no longer disrupted by the high terrain of southeastern Cuba, the IR rainbow signature is showing a dramatic improvement in internal structure of the storm. Same story with potential steering mechanisms beyond 48 hours. So many opposing environmental and atmospheric variables. I can easily see the system stalling near northern Alabama for a couple days.
The Jose models are facing the same issue of trying to find any viable path to complete the course of navigating west, then north, then east. Any weakness in the jet stream could invite the same Bermuda high that won the Irma battle to steer Jose into the mid Atlantic next week.