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[July 31] Tropical Storm Emily Forms just West of Tampa
A small circulation has formed just west of Tampa, FL along an old frontal boundary draped across the Florida Peninsula. A small cluster of thunderstorms has persisted near the center of this circulation, and the National Hurricane Center has initiated advisories on Tropical Storm Emily. Upper-level winds are not favorable for significant development, with strong NNW flow over the eastern Gulf of Mexico imposing wind shear on the storm. This wind shear may abate in the short-term, but Emily will move inland over the Florida Peninsula near or south of Tampa later today. TD6 is then expected to cross Florida out into the southwest Atlantic Ocean from Tuesday onward, and is not expected to threaten the southeast U.S. coastline. Upper-level winds are expected to remain only marginal at best during this time, and Emily is not currently expected to strengthen. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Anclote River to Bonita Beach, Florida. The primary threat from Emily is locally heavy rainfall, accompanied by some gusty winds to Tropical Storm force. More information is available here.
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Emily spun up pretty fast. Just think if it had more time over water. Could this be a harbinger of a busy season Levi?
Storms like Emily don’t really tell you much about the hurricane season as a whole. The reason is their origin is not tropical. Emily came from a front. Storms like Bret and Don, tropical waves which formed early in the tropics, are sometimes an indicator that conditions are generally favorable for an active season, but even then it is far from a guarantee.
Love to hear your thoughts about the next 7 to 10 days.
Things look to get interesting to say the least.