Support TT[Friday evening] Fiona nearing Canada; TD9 Expected to Threaten Western Caribbean and Southeast U.S.
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Levi thank you for a great explanation of what TD-9 is going to do and why! Still lots of possibilities for Florida landfall.
It will be interesting to see which checks out GFS Big Bend or Euro near Miami. The GFS has been so erratic this season. 5-6 storms that never panned out and constant flip flops on tracks. So this storm will be another test for it. The GFS does not seem to notice the cooler air pressing from the west next week. I think the EURO shows this correctly. The GFS did too a few runs ago then…
Thanks Levi!
I am safe and sound in Minnesota now, but you were a guiding light throughout my whole time in Florida. Being in the eye of three hurricanes shortly after moving to Florida gave me the great inspiration for my learning about tropical meteorology. You taught me. I can never thank you enough.
Thanks Levi- Can you discuss in one of your upcoming posts regarding the differences in land interaction based on the different topography of Cuba. It seems like the Western half of Cuba doesn’t present as much of a challenge to storms as the eastern half.
Eastern side is more mountainus terrian, while Western is more flat
Thanks!! We always appreciate your non-sensational and scientific take
Thank you. Very well explained.
I’m watching the convection explode more southernly right now. I wonder if the storm is being pulled south like you mentioned was possible and trying to align there? It will be interesting to see where the center is in the AM,
Interesting, I learned a lot about tropical storm Ian and on how it going to move in the next few days.
Thank you very much for the insight. I look at a lot of sources, but you put it all together for me.
As of 18Z (noon EST?) on the 24th, the “model track guidance” spaghetti plot shows the storm will hit FL no further south in Florida than Tampa. The “average” prediction is closer to the panhandle. Yet, the NOAA NHC cone plot says the center could still go as far south as Key West and/or Naples, which are much further south.
Anyone offer an explanation?
https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/images/AL09_2022092412_ECENS_large.png?1664048664
https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_09_ens.gif
I think these plots explain it. It simply depends on which ensemble plot you are looking at. However, I think you are correct, the other tracks seem somewhat unlikely.
There is also the whole psychology of getting people to act, particularly with a weekend. Risk/reward/time to act thing. If the storm were to curve and go towards far south Florida, people would have to act very quickly to get out of the way, particularly when you think of the roads in south FL. So while unlikely, you want to keep mentioning it to keep people’s attention.
The parts of FL that are further north, while more likely, have some more time, and more options as far as evacuation routes.
Hey Levi
Great job on your website. I’ve been a fan for years and a first-time commenter.
TS-Ian will be making a little history as one of only 6 storms to ever pass south then west of Jamacia without landfall. The south coast of Jamacia has always been my hurricane bolt-hole.
Both you and Chris Parker nailed the further western movement that was not forecasted by anyone on Friday. Nice job as usual.
Bad data on the 6 storms…
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