Support TTHistoric Hurricane Laura to Bring Catastrophic Flooding to Southwest Louisiana Tonight
53 comments
« Previous Entry Next Entry »
Comments closed
Basic HTML is allowed.
Support this site:
53 comments
« Previous Entry Next Entry »
Copyright © 2012- 2024 Tropical Tidbits, All Rights Reserved.
Contact: levicowan@tropicaltidbits.com
Privacy Policy: tropicaltidbits.com/privacy-policy.html
Comments
I bet $100 the “Laura” name will be retired.
As always, thank you Levi for your updates.
Did the NHC missed the intensity on this one?
NHC track forecast was spot on. Certainly they always said RI was possible, and gave early warning to people in the cone to evacuate. What more should be expected? Your question is the real miss, seems to me.
I feel like the people who say the stuff Bill did don’t really understand how forecasting works. Even if conditions favor RI, it’s generally not a good idea to explicitly forecast it until it’s already underway; good way to lose your credibility. Could they have gone higher despite that? Yes. Of course. I did. But I’m also in a less vulnerable position than the NHC since I’m an armchair forecaster. I don’t have lives on my hands, so even though I value my credibility all the same, I’m still in a more objectively better position than they are, and can afford to be more aggressive if I feel like it’s warranted.
In forecasting, it’s not what you see that gets you, but what you don’t see. That’s why some degree of conservatism is necessary.
There was a turn to the north about 2.5 hours ago, right after we got blasted by a couple CMEs of the Earth-facing coronal hole, wasn’t there, Levi? I was watching the 6 hour satellite loop and it looks like a strong right turn after bumping the CME-pumped ridge at the TX coast. Is this possible? CME’s energy could drive extra heat into the atmosphere at just the right time to pump that ridge ahead of a rapidly-strengthening Laura?Because that’s what it looked like to me. Both you and NWS have noted the movement now. I don’t remember where Dr. Masters is posting or I’d look that up too. Western LA squarely in the cross-hairs tonight.
BTW-I’ve followed you on Cat6 going all the way back before Katrina, I think. Good to see you’ve finally “made it”! 🙂
Dr. Masters is at the “Eye on the Storm” blog at Yale Climate Connections:
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/08/hurricane-laura-intensifies-catastrophic-wind-and-storm-surge-expected/
Not all Women.
I was in Ivan 2004 140 mph
Levi,
Can’t thank you enough for your detailed analysis of all these tropical systems. You make a very complicated subject understandable while providing fascinating insight. As a Florida resident who lives a block from the ocean, your guidance is very greatly appreciated. You have more than filled the gap left by Dr. Steve Lyons’ retirement! Thank you!
Ditto what Rick Tresher said. The information you provided is very much appreciated. Thank you!
Heartfelt thanks Levi for your expertise.
We will be safe in the Houston/Galveston area but
my family’s homes north of Lake Charles will likely
receive a direct hit, much more severe than Rita in 2005.
Then today came the sobering and as you said “dire warning” from
the Lake Charles Weather Office. And their statement was spot on, in that Laura’s storm surge is “unsurvivable”.
I’ve seen firsthand what a 15-20 foot storm surge is capable of while on assignment as a television news photographer in Hurricane Hugo in 1989, and as a video editor for Hurricane Ike in 2005 on the Bolivar Peninsula. I’ve worked 20+ tropical cyclones- 1 of them was Hurricane Danny in 1985 that came into Cameron Parish La. as a minimal Cat 1. Our crew and other stations based our operations/live trucks, etc. at the Cameron Parish Courthouse to cover the storm. If I were working Laura? I know I would be nowhere near the very low/flat coastal Louisiana parishes or Texas counties ports or beaches. I pray the local officials were able to convince everyone to evacuate…..
But just like Louisianans helped us so much through Harvey, Texans will certainly rally and be there for everyone in SE Texas and SW Louisiana too after Laura blows through. Best regards, LM
I apologize for the senior moment, 2008 was when Ike blew through SE TX/Galveston/Bolivar Peninsula, not 2005. Rita was 2005.
Any chance to get another update Levi, pretty crazy how fast this thin* is growing
Hi Levi. I’ve come across your site from time to time but never really appreciated your work until a few weeks ago – just in time to get a crash course following your Laura info.
I was curious, though, about your signing off on Laura. I don’t know if it is typical for tropical storms to hold their energy for so long and become extratropical storms, but is there any reason you won’t be covering it’s expected movements through the mid-Atlantic and beyond? Is this a someone normal hurricane/TS behavior?
Appreciate everything you do and the thoughtful comments from your readers!
I was aggravated at the lack of coverage of this hurricane. Nobody broke regular coverage, and covered Laura continuously. Normal programming, and regular weather coverage instead of only Laura.
All I can do now is pray for the people of southwestern Louisiana.
Hurricane Eye is just off the coast, east of Sabine Lake, Louisiana.
The magnetic activity of the solar wind increases (beginning of a new solar cycle) and the activity of the Atlantic (stronger northern jet stream) increases.
Eye of the hurricane comes on the land in front of Lake Charles.
The town of Cameron is now in the eye of the Hurricane.
Eye pressure extremely low. 928.10 hPa was measured at Prien.
Laura pulls water vapor from the very hot western Gulf of Mexico. Severe thunderstorms in eastern Louisiana are forming on this tail.
Laura will stay in Arkansas for the next 24 hours.
Disappointing that my factual post was censored.
What exactly was considered offensive in my contribution?
Laura merged with the upper low in Oklahoma, and remains over Arkansans.
What a waste of $20. 00 that I sent to you.
Expected more.
Still set on 8/26/20.
So sad.
Sucked me in.
There is nothing else to forecast after it lands.
Laura is now pulling a lot of moisture off the Gulf of Mexico to the Southeast.
Levi,
You do an amazing job “dumbing” this down for all of us liberal arts guys. THANK YOU.
I use Washington’s Atmos website, you and of course the NHC during Hurricane season.
Thanks and congrats on obtaining you PhD.
Dean