FishOutofWater says:

It is already wet enough over the lowlands of central America that coming ashore over the lowlands will not cause this storm to dissipate. It was reforming over the lowlands of the Yucatan. It will have to go over the mountains to be disrupted.

Congrats on the PhD and the NOAA hurricane research job. You are officially an expert now. I’m glad to see this site is still here. Thanks for your public education work on your free time.

FYI, Pat Caldwell who works for NOAA in Hawaii is an outstanding surf forecaster – simply the best. He did it on his own time but he was so good that it caused some issues only understood by those who have served in the federal govt, and it eventually became part of his official job description.

This is a crazy start to hurricane season. The heat content of the tropical Atlantic is disturbingly high – near record levels for this date. The early build up of heat north of Puerto Rico and Cuba is not reassuring to this North Carolina resident. I am very tired of flooding and damage from tropical systems over the past 5 years.

Your paper in press is very interesting. It brings to mind the impossible intensity forecast for hurricane Michael. There appeared to be too much shear for intensification but the high heat content combined with the powerful jet to the NE of the storm raised the possibility of intensification despite the strong shear. I don’t envy the NHC forecasters. Lives were on the line.

will james says:

This marked area on the map is basically those regions of America where there are high chances of flood. This can cause tropical depression and cv writers uk is working on this central threat.