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[Thursday Evening] – Irma a Potentially Catastrophic Threat to the Bahamas, Cuba, and the Southeast U.S.; Jose a Threat to Leeward Islands
Latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center on Hurricane Irma
Visit the National Hurricane Center for the latest information on Hurricane Katia and Hurricane Jose.
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how is the upper low near the caymans affecting Irma? if at all?
As a South Florida Firefighter/Paramedic and former Navy Helicopter SAR crewman,I fond your Tropical Tidbits very helpful. I usually have to stay on duty during the storms so I have my family watch you for better understanding of what is happening. Thank you
Thank you
I absolutely love your videos and the way you communicate with your viewers, Levi. I live on Irma’s path so I heavily rely on accurate information and I am literally addicted to your blog. I am deaf and I’ve been watching your videos successfully with closed captions. I am unable to enable CC on this video or is it just on my end? Thank you in advance!
Thanks for the compliment! Hmm, as far as I know you’re supposed to be able to turn CC on/off yourself, and I can’t even accidentally disable it. Not sure what’s wrong on your end.
It works now, I didn’t know that it takes some time for YouTube to generate them. Thank you again, Levi! Keep up with your amazing work.
The closed captions are visible now. Youtube generates them automatically, but it requires a little time to take effect.
Thank you Sir for your explanations and due diligence and you be safe as well.
Vic in Ormond beach, Fl
Thanks Levi! Hoping for the best here in Port Saint Lucie. I
Mr Cowan,
Thanks for your latest broadcast.
How bad will the winds be in central FL? Hoping to find my home still there when I return.
Thanks again.
Regards,
Ray D.
I live in Tavares, central Florida & have been watching ‘Orlando Sentinel’ broadcasts on-line. Really, really good specific information on the
this hurricane for our region. Tonight they said we would get at least 39mph winds up to 70. If you are on the coast that’s a different matter altogether. But inland we get the better side of the rotation. Hope that helps. Keep watching the local stations, they really are helpful.
Ms Bentley,
Thank you very much.
Regards,
Ray D.
Hey – can you make sure to turn on the auto captioning on your Youtube videos – my circle of friends require captions – I am having to interpret some of your info so they can understand your excellent info – if it was captioned they could watch it themselves…
Maybe you could interpret for me! Haha (check my comment to Levi above)
Again, Levi, thank you for your very complete video and analysis of Irma. Thank you too for your compassion for those who may be affected by this monster storm. I listen to the NHC and you only (local offices of emergency management too). You are the BEST. I hope Tallahassee is not affected by Irma and that you stay safe! Your amazing dedication in doing these videos for us all is such a blessing. See you tomorrow for the next one.
Just want to say thank you, for maintaining this blog and for doing such an amazing job of clearly explaining what’s happening and why, while still acknowledging the uncertainty that goes into any weather forecast.
Outstanding broadcast as usual, Levi. Question:
Any sense of how ‘wet’ Irma is? As I recall Andrew in ’92 was relatively ‘dry.’ Also, in comparison to Andrew, is Irma a faster mover? Thanks.
Also PSA…look out for your elderly neighbors and pets if you decide to ‘ride it out’ in South Florida this weekend. They depend on you. Peace. Out.
Levi – your knowledge combined with your exceptional communication style are amazing. You have been a massive help in my understanding of this once in a lifetime event. Thank you. I too am addicted to the updates.
We are in the thick of it on Provo and it is awful. The wind is shaking the whole building, the golf course club house, shingles are flying off, pressure is insane. I fear coming out tomorrow morning.
Provo Utah ??
Provo is nick name for Providenciales,, Turks and Caicos
Stay safe!
I’m worried about T&C. I love your Islands and have spent many vacations there. Fear what I will see on Friday. I hope you are safe in Provo.
Hi Levi, Thanks so much for your insightful videos. Your site is helping me warn my friends and family here in central Florida.
Levi: As noted before, the header on your emails is one day behind.
Today the email you sent very recently says Wednesday, both in the header and in the email itself, and I need to click the tropical tidbits “box: logo within the email to get the Thursday edition. I am using safari, gmail and a macbook pro if it matters….
The email notification system is pretty bad, admittedly. It only sends out updates once a day, and if I update too late in the day, it will wait until the next day to send it. Sometime in the future I’m going to try to overhaul the email system.
For those of us without TV your broadcasts give us the info we need quick. Please try and broadcast more frequently as it makes landfall in Florida. Thanks. Tampa resident.
You are providing a great service to us, Levi. Thank you so much. Prayers for all in harms way.
Thank you, Levi. I pray for the safety of all concerned in Florida and beyond. Of course, we can’t forget those who have already been affected by Irma’s passage.
Excellent job communicating some really complicated stuff.
Thank you!
Thanks for the data brother!!!!!!!!!??
I can’t thank you enough for these measured, thoughtful takes on this approaching storm, Your videos have been informative and helpful.
As a far Western Broward County resident, I believed I have taken every precaution possible in advance of this storm.
Stay calm and carry on, as was said long ago.
Fantastic content that you are creating, Levi!
Are the decreasing wind speeds coupled with steady pressure indicative of the ongoing eyewall replacement cycle?
Or, are the max wind speeds decreasing due to other conditions?
Thanks for sharing your knowledge, and devoting your time to help keep the public informed and safe.
Yes, as the ERC progresses, the max wind speed usually lowers as the wind field gets spread out, even though the pressure may remain the same. After the ERC completes, we may see the maximum winds increase again.
Thank you for the response, Levi.
The completion of the ERC as the storm approaches warmer water and the Gulf Stream concerns me.
I recall prior storms rapidly, and unexpectedly, intensifying as they cross the Gulf Stream, but I don’t know whether ERC was a factor at the time.
Do you think the warmer water coupled with the completion of the ERC could result in rapid intensification of Irma around the time she begins her shift north?
Again, many thanks for your time and efforts to keep your followers informed and safe!
Why has the track for Hurricane Irma shifted a little more westward, Levi? Is there a possible threat to Texas from Irma by late next week?
Levy, I’ve been waiting all day for your update. Checking in from Jupiter Florida. Is this storm twice the size of Andrew? Does the storm surge push water through rivers as well? I’m about six miles from the coast but near a river. Donated before I lose electricity, great work I’m glad I found you.
Storm surge absolutely goes up rivers. You will be able to assess the risk of inundation both at the coast and along rivers on the map provided by NHC. This will update over time (it is not fully complete since Irma is still far away), and is just a guideline, but helps you assess your risk.
Levi, why does the surge map show only one foot inundation in the FL Keys? I know it’s on the “weaker” side but other spots on the west coast of FL (such as southeast of Naples) show 9 feet.
Perhaps you can explain this map in your next updat?
I’m about 9 miles from the beach on the east coast of Florida (just north or Ft.Lauderdale) I’m not in an evacuation zone but very close…. do you think the storm surge could bring catastrophic flooding that far in? We are hunkering down in my home with two small children the house is secure from wind we have steel shutters on every window and just had our roof re-done last year. PLEASE tell me your honest opinion… should we get to a shelter still in case of flooding? I’m truly terrified for myself and my family. Thank you so much for these videos they are much more informative than what I’ve been seeing on the news.
If you are at significant storm surge risk, an evacuation order will be given for your location. If you receive one, leave. Other than that, I can’t know the details of a person’s specific location, and I can’t make decisions for you. Consult local officials or those who would know more about your area. Stay safe!
Thank you Levi for your ongoing discussion and warnings. I trust you have your GO bag ready in case Irma causes ruinous dangers your way.
Keep up your solid work. You are a guardian angel to many people.
Janet
This is incorrect. Leaving late, just before or as the storm is arriving, is *NOT* a good idea!
Family in transit. Fuel to NC hard to find
I wish everyone who lived in the Carolinas would read this!! I’ve read posts with so many people breathing a sigh of relief because there’s a shift in the path and they are no longer close to point of impact. Please listen to what he’s saying about surges and take necessary precautions! This is a monster storm and should not be taken lightly. Forget just the categories and projected paths – there is so much more involved with this thing.
Thank you Levi for your continued outstanding analysis. I’m telling everyone I know to listen to your daily updates.
Love the videos, been watching for years! You do a great job of explaining extremely complicated situations in very simple ways that everyone can understand. I’m currently preparing in West Palm and shared your videos with many friends in my area. You have helped a lot of people in the wake of this storm and I would truly like to thank you for that.
Best of luck everyone who has been affected and could be affected by this catastrophic storm, and thank you for all the wishes back!
Thanks for these updates Levi. Have been following you for a few years now. Started sharing your site and videos with my family and staff. You really explain what is happening without all of the media hype.
I’m safely inland in Sarasota County, but my daughter just moved to an apartment in Tallahassee 3 weeks ago. Was not pleased with the latest cone shift to the NW. I know that area is prone to power outages, but am thinking other than normal precautions, odds are good they’ll be generally safe? Tough question, but since it’s your neighborhood I figured I’d ask.
Thanks for all you do. Stay safe and God Bless.
Is the possible center track you discussed the most dangerous? Or would the eye riding just east of florida be the worst?
Anyways thanks again for your hard work. It truly shows in your videos!
Thanks,
Ryan
Another thank you. We also rely on the tools on your website. Most of all, your calm and measured explanations steer us through this difficult situation. In an age where ratings on built on hype, your approach is greatly appreciated.
I also second another commentator’s observation that local stations are a good source for understanding of how Irma may impact specific locations, and when.
Last year hurricane Mathew blindsided locals here in Virginia. I had been tracking it for two weeks because I’m a weather enthusiast. This storm just clarified how hurricane prediction is regressing much like tornado warnings/threat level. I just check the mesocyclone discussion page and that’s I need to check. I don’t know if they ever updated the weather satellites . There is a disconnect to the point where I have little to no faith in nhc or twc trajectories.Sorry to rant. I appreciate your diligence, gifting us accurate information, I respect that you don’t shotgun predictions, so be mindful, keep doing what you’re doing.
Quickly let me rewind to my first topic. Hurricane guidance and local weather meteorologist were so off I was baffled beyond belief. Right now it has it going inland over the south. With the size of the storm, what should places like Chesapeake expect ?
Thanks in advance
Lex S,
We can support Levi’s work with donations. Home page, upper right corner.
Another outstanding video explaining the high pressure, the upper low steering mechanism moving from Colorado to Alabama, and the exiting trough in the eastern states lifting out! This video and blog can be used in conjunction with the National Hurricane Center to warn, prepare for safety, and save lives and resources! Now…the latest Euro is updating! Heed this model…the hurricane is moving on track for south Florida and in just 48 hours the hurricane center will still be at 942 mb of low pressure as it approaches from the south! Be safe! Move to higher ground and evacuate as soon as possible if you have waited! Watch for many hazards!
The Euro is the ECMWF! Other models have winds possibly even higher than around 145 mph!
The winds are of course higher than 145 mph now, but it appears some models are going to strengthen the hurricane as it approaches Florida! Stay safe and move to safety now!
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
Don’t forget any dams! FLA draining as much as possible before Sunday. 18″ or more may cause breeches or release excess water to save the dams and flood the normally dry areas.
Lock and board your place and get out, Your life is more important.
How large is the eye and how far out do hurricane force winds stretch? I am in Sebastian and trying to figure out a rough idea for sustained winds.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 75 miles (120 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).
The minimum central pressure recently reported by the Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 925 mb (27.31 inches).
I’m in Savannah and we’re deciding if we’re going to evacuate Saturday morning. How confident are you that the current track will remain through central Georgia and avoid the coast. I dont want to evacuate unless absolutely necessary. Evacuating would be extremely stressful for my elderly mother and her cats. Just think of all the hotels the good people of Florida could use in coastal Georgia and South Carolina.
[…] Levi Cowan at Tropical Tidbits here explained late Thursday evening the factors driving the storm, and the likely path in the days ahead. It really couldn’t be worse and more unfortunate. […]
Levi,
Let me know if you need hardware.
Second hopefully we’re all watching the ‘earthnullschool’ site for steering air currents. Air here in Ohio every cool and dry. The air mass should effect Irma in northern GA.
God speed the those in FLA.
Major solar flares incoming next two days, may cause radio communication disruptions. Upper radiation to high level aircraft and space vehicles.
Suicide by Hurricane, just don’t do it. Live to fight another day!
Trending west….Good for me in WPB. You may get a nice little wallop in Tallahassee. Thanks for everything you do. I literally wait for your video every night!
I’m new to the site, this is fantastic information. how often do you provide updates…would love to know your thoughts on the forecast shifts and if you think they are likely to hold.
Well…… Irma’s shifts to the west are forcing me to do more prep than I had planned on! Guess I better get busy. Some local sailors are now brining their sailboats and dropping them in the bayou/bay behind my house. Its been a well known “safe harbor” for boaters – just hope they anchor up properly and we don’t have another Ivan where the boats were tossed about everywhere! (Don’t know if you remember the photos I posted on WU). Thanks again Levi for the excellent video and info.
BeachFoxx
Foxx, thinking of you and all my WU friends in FL.
Am staying put, I think. We’ll make a final decision tomorrow morning but I think we’re good.
Hope you folks are high and dry. Watch for twisters
does this get updated every night? i have been checking all day bwcause it’s such great info.
would love to hear this guys opinion on the hurricane about to hit Florida. Kind of weird that in such a time of need he goes MIA.