Andrew says:

Thank you, Visioen. To my untrained eye that steering mechanism from the Plains states didn’t look terribly big or robust, so I’d be surprised if it were sufficient to effect such a dramatic 90° turn to the north. And in fact the past 24 hours has shown us that the predicted northern track is moving to the west, almost to Florida’s Gulf coast.

Furthermore, the extreme 90° turn to the north was predicted long before that steering mechanism from the Plains states even began to form, which suggests to me that the dramatic 90° turn to the north, at precisely the point where it would scare the most people, moving right up the middle of the peninsula where *everyone* would be at risk, was deliberate misinformation – perhaps even wishful thinking – on the part of the climate fanatics in the media who salivate at the thought of blaming Irma on global warming (I’m not talking about Levi).

Prior to Thursday there was virtually nothing to support a dramatic 90° turn to the north, especially given Irma’s several days of steady WNW movement. Yet there it was, on every model. How…convenient.

Here’s my layman’s guess – it turns north gradually and tracks up the Gulf coast of Florida, maybe even off the coast slightly.