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[Monday Evening] – Irma Nearing Lesser Antilles; Direct Impacts in Greater Antilles, Bahamas, and Turks & Caicos Likely This Week
Latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center
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Just found your site. Very helpful and informative. Thank you!
So glad we have you to explain everything so clearly . Please don’t stop!
Finally decided to post here, from weather underground
are tornados probable with hurricanes? that is what I freak out about the most.
thanks, Levi
Yes they are Ashley. Don’t want to raise your fear level though. I been through a few hurricanes here in Fla. the last 40 years. The stronger the storm the more tornadoes it usually produces. If you are in the path please listen to your local authority’s and do as instructed.
Yes, they can spawn tornado’s
Tornadoes are almost always a threat with a landfalling hurricane, mainly in the rainbands in the right-front quadrant.
Here in the Houston area it seemed as though we were under a constant threat of tornados as Harvey slowly made his way through Texas.
Storms storm like this Definetly spawn tornados and much more devistation.
Strong*
Thank you for your observations and comments. Scary situation. Very scary but your calm demeanor helps to calm things down.
Thank you Levi for your in-depth explanations. I am following your site religiously. We are in TCI and am starting to worry a bit more than I was yesterday, even though yesterday we were in its direct path.
Hoping people stay safe and thoughts and prayers being sent to the Lesser Antilles.
Great job as always. Live on the coast of Alabama will keep an eye on this for the next few days.
Thank-you for sharing your expertise! You have a gift for explaining complicated data in a way that those of us with less knowledge understand. It is very much appreciated.
Don’t know what we would do without you Levi. Live on the coast of Mississippi and depend heavily on your professional information. Thanks!!
We on Hatteras Island feel the same way!
Thankyou levi I live on the Alabama coast thankyou for the update I will be watching closely.
I live just inland from the coast. Irma is about the most concerning storm I’ve seen since Ivan. Not that this will be another Ivan (I hope), but there are some track and synoptic similarities. The one consolation is it’s hard for a hurricane to split the goalposts in the Florida Strait and get intro the Gulf in one piece. It has happned before so it’s not impossible, but the odds are in our favor.
You are literally a life saver! Thank you so very much….we are waiting for your forecast every day! We are in Fort Myers pretty much ready thanks to you. God bless and keep you. It is so wonderful to have every thing explained so well, how all the lows and highs can potentially move and direct the storm system…..we had very very severe and unusual flooding here last weekend, so it was really great to see your post from Aug 22 on Harvey ( which was kindly arcived on your site) to help understand what happened here.
Levi, thanks once again for your analysis of this storm and the reviewing all the possibilities for a US landfall. My big concern is if the storm moves into the Gulf. Houston cannot take more flooding! Where I live is Ocala, FL and we are unlikely to have serious flooding. Still I wait for every analysis that you put out for all of us! Hope you had some “off” time this Labor Day weekend!
thank you so much. hope you post something more about that system in the Gulf too.
I’m currently in Guatanamo Bay, Cuba. Thank you for your explanation of what’s going on.
The current and possible projected track of Irma looks to be similar to Hurricane Donna in 1960.
That hurricane swept up the entire East Coast with hurricane force winds, from Florida northward.
See the Wikipedia page for hurricane Donna, including maps.
Of course the steering currents, once Irma gets south or west of Florida, may well be different…
Thank you Levi. You are a treasure to the world
Thank you Levi for such informative daily posts! Just started following your reports 3 days ago.
Watching from southern coastal Rhode Island.
Mr. Cowan,
Watching your latest video reminded me of the legendary Don Kent
who did the weather forecasts on WBZ TV in Boston when I was in elementary school in the fifties.
He was THE weather man. You are very much like him.
Regards,
Ray D.
I remember Don Kent !!! 🙂
Something is amiss with your email updates Levi.
Last night(Sunday) I did not get your Sunday update and had to access the site directly. It was not is spam either.
Tonight your email header SAYS “Sunday update”, but when I click on it it gives me the (correct) Monday update. I am a new subscriber- perhaps there is s glitch regarding that in some way?
Interaction with the greater Antilles could be catastrophic – a slow moving major hurricane will do a lot of damage to the DR and Haiti.
As always, Levi breaks it down into easily digestible content. Keep up the great work.
– fellow weather nerd (but not nearly as knowledgeable or experiences)
Great analysis! There are so many varibles that come into play in
forecasting this hurricane and I think you account for them better
than any other forecast summary I have seen so far. Keep us up to
date and informed and my thoughts and prayers are with everyone who
is in the path of this powerful storm.
Really excellent commentary on this hurricane. Very informative. I live In central Florida & this reminds me of Matthew from last year, which skirted the East Florida coast & the NHC really couldn’the tell us if it would wobble on shore or not. We hunkered down with a generator & waited it out. I think Matthew was a cat 3 at that point & we had about 65 mile per hour gusts inland. Overall it was more of a wind event than a rain event. Perhaps you will go into that aspect more should it skim the coast again, nearer the time. Please keep up this excellent Work! Much appreciated.
Levi will give more updates on the path once it becomes better established. My guess is this won’t be a repeat of Matthew. Irma will either hit Florida somewhere or will be out to sea and miss you by a good bit. I live in south Alabama so the possibility of Irma getting into the Gulf and making the north turn has me concerned.
Hello from Comerio, Puerto Rico. I’m quite worried about this storm, as I see that many folks are just looking at the cone map and deciding not to do any thing to prepare.
Now that hurricane warnings are up they will start paying more attention.
Great work Levi. I always enjoy your informative videos. They are well made and you make them easy to understand. Thanks.
Levi, your explanations are awesome. Most major news outlets give updates that don’t go through as many scenarios as you do (obviously because of the length) and I am happy to sit in on a “seminar” listening to someone who does such a great job. I have family in Pensacola so it’s great to fully understand possibilities and plan. Appreciate your input.
I have been following tropical cyclones from my high school days on Homestead AFB back in 1971. The TC that are taking a similar path as Irma almost always interacted with the land masses and mountains of the islands and were weakened to category 1 or less. It should be interesting to see if this fate befalls this system.
I grew up in Ft. Lauderdale and have lived in Houston for 40 years. My dad was WWII Navy and taught us how to plot storms in the 1950’s. I follow a number of sites and found yours a few a weeks ago.
Your tools and analysis are excellent! It’s like taking Hurricanes 405 class. I wish, with all the brain power and funding that the NHC receives they would update their public analysis to something close to yours.
Many thanks and blessings for your efforts! I have contributed via Paypal to your site in the past couple weeks and suggest that others on this blog do the same.
thank you Levi.
Thank you, Levi, for your commentary and analysis. You have a gift in your ability to explain a situation in a concise yet extremely informative manner. Those of us who follow you are very fortunate to have your experience and insight as a trusted source of information in circumstances such as the upcoming week!
You’re the best!
Thank you, Levi Cowan, once again, for such excellent video anayises. Please post us another one tomorrow so we can better understand what is happening AROUND the system (factors affecting it); sometimes we look at the graphics and loops and fail to see what your trained eye sees so well. I am sharing your videos for my family and friends in Puerto Rico and beyond. A lot of people are worried, and for good reason… Thank you again.
Sure glad I found this site. Lots of good info. Was in Katrina and Camille plus lots in between that hit the Mississippi Gulf coast so I really watch closely. The hanks so much!
We are scheduled to be in Jamaica until Monday. We have a contingency flight reservation for Friday. Not much is being said about Jamaica. Should we expect the heavy rains from outer bands or is it looking like it will will here?
It’s currently expected to pass well to the north, but some of the outerbands could clip the island and bring rainfall and gusty winds, depending on how far south Irma tracks near Hispaniola and Cuba.
Is there still a chance this could shift south and miss FL completely? Also, what will spare FL from being at risk?
I really appreciate all your info!
Don’t look to me like it’s going to miss Florida at all! Most models have it aimed at South Florida and then possibly turning north once it hits land, which will make it a rain maker for Ga. and South Carolina, but not much more! If it turns before hitting Florida, I would be surprised. I initially thought it would turn it would be Jacksonville up to the Outerbanks, as a landfall. But right now, South Florida looks like it’s in the cross fire!
Sadly you’re probably right…I just hope some things change for the better in the next few days.
Thank you awesome Levi!
Saw that you mentioned your bandwidth issues and the flow of traffic ! That’s, coz lots of us are sharing your site, videos and twitter ! Really appreciate what you do.
Here on St. Croix, per the newest update @ 10:39 NHC, we’ve changed to hurricane warning status, yet the forecast positions, show this WNW movement expected. Curious if that expectation has any reason to be questionable…with the push from the south? why our status changed?
Yep, the island people have been busy busy preparing… Hope for the best plan for…whatever it is !
Hope to hear from you, my first Major H. Experience!
Linda
Thank you so much for your awesome updates ! … You explain very clearly ! …. My son has followed you for yrs …. Keep up the great work !
A few days from some effect on Florida, we are shuttering tomorrow, no use in waiting till the last minute. This is not looking good for the Sunshine State! Lila
I keep hearing ads while you are talking … is that happening for anyone else?
Sorry, never mind about the ads …. something else was open on my desktop & I did not know it.
Please delete my comments!
So nc is no longer in the possible direct impact danger right now that they have officially scared the hell out of southeastern nc for idk the 20th time in like 10 years they always say there is a major hurricane likey to hit the carolinas then it goes out to sea or hits florida dont get me wrong im glad florida gets it instead of us no offense but still buying all the crap to get ready is not cheap and everyone is going to believe the weather community is crying wolf the next time they see a storm like this hell most do now
This is my new “go to” weather site! Thank you so much for all of your information! It has been so helpful to me and my family! Just got through Harvey here, and sure appreciate all the explanations you give for Irma. Your website and video’s are absolutely the best out there in the entire world for helping us regular folks to understand what is going on. Please keep up the good work! Don’t know what I would do without your site during Hurricane season!!
This is a very useful and well designed website! The route of Irma may have interaction with the previous track of Harvey near Tennessee! Rainfall patterns from previous storms influence future rainfall!
Benoit Mandelbrot was a Polish-born, French and American mathematician with broad interests in the practical sciences, especially regarding what he labeled as “the art of roughness” of physical phenomena and “the uncontrolled element in life.” Wikipedia
The website and updates are great. I especially like the quick link going straight to HH recon. Next flight is heading in now. Sattelite imagery is showing the ERC is over. Storm looks to be exploding. Lets see if HH verifies?
With the projected eye path staying off shore from Dom/Cuba, this is turning scary for a lot of people VERY quickly. Be safe, all.
Just looked at the recon schedule. Looks like Mission #7 and Mission #8 will both be doing low level analysis inside the storm at the same time. Fascinating show!
*Grabs popcorn for breakfast*
Thank you Levi. I follow a dozen different weather resources and your explanations are the best.
HH just passed through the eye. Down to 929mbar. Not good. Not good at all. Irma will be a strong Cat 5 in a matter of hours if that trend continues.
Good morning Levi, if at all possible please increase frequency of your updated posting today we need you.
Here we go again Levi. Thanks as usual!
Thanks for the great information. I’m tired of the hysterical and dramatic weather reporting from the local news stations. Following your blog closely from South East Florida.
Levi – thank you so very much for this valuable information. Many of us in the U.S. Virgin Islands (and I’m sure in Puerto Rico too) are frustrated that the Weather Channel does not provide any useful information for the islands and spends so much time predicting where Irma might impact the mainland U.S.
As I’ve said before, it is extremely helpful to understand the “why” behind the forecasts and what all of the possible storm tracks are. I’ve been following your blog since last week when you started posting updates on Irma and it has made a world of difference in how I prepared for the storm. Thank you!!
And, please continue to discuss what might happen in the islands. We are all very anxious.
Hi Levi–if Irma does come to the Panhandle, what would be the possible timing? Most of the models I have seen stop on the weekend.
Cat 5 now. OMG. I hope the people in Irma’s path have found safety. This storm will be more than anyone could expect. If people can get out of harms way they should do so. I pray for the ones who have to stay.