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[Sunday] Harvey Continues to Flood Texas; Tropical Depression Likely to Form off SE US Coast
Torrential rains from Harvey continue to produce catastrophic flooding in SE Texas, especially the Houston metro area. Thoughts and prayers go out to the residents there, as current rainfall totals could still be doubled during the next few days, and Harvey may not leave Texas until around Thursday. While it is still possible that Harvey will drift back over the Gulf of Mexico waters for a brief time, it is not expected to be long enough for significant reintensification of winds to occur. However, if it wasn’t clear by now, flooding is the primary threat to life and property. If you live in these areas experiencing flooding, avoid driving your vehicle, as the vast majority of flooding-related deaths are drivers being caught in water and having nowhere to escape. Please be safe everyone.
Elsewhere…Invest 92L, a disturbance which has been drifting near Florida for the last several days, is developing into a well-defined area of low pressure just NE of Jacksonville. The system is highly sheared out of the west due to upper-level outflow from Harvey, but low-level thermal gradients associated with a nearby front are helping to focus thunderstorm activity not far from the low center despite the shear. An ASCAT pass from earlier today indicated that the circulation is not yet well-defined enough to call the system a tropical depression, but 92L now has a high chance of becoming one over the next day or so, and the NHC has initiated advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten (PTC10). The system is expected to gradually move northward today and Monday, nearing the South Carolina coastline. Acceleration toward the northeast is then expected near coastal North Carolina, and then out into the NW Atlantic. Given the aforementioned shear, PTC10 is not expected to intensify much in the short term, but a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for coastal North Carolina and a portion of the South Carolina coastline. Rain and gusty winds are expected in the area regardless of development. As the storm moves out into the NW Atlantic, it may intensify as a nontropical storm, but away from land. For further details, visit hurricanes.gov.
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The GFS forecasted wind fields for PTS10 have very strong winds in the NW quadrant around the time it reaches coastal VA. This seems like an unusual setup with the surface high near Maine adding to the winds of the storm, and adds a coastal flooding threat.
High pressure gradient to the north of 92l will cause increase in wind speed as it moves into va
Katy, & Cinco Ranch are in danger of flooding tonight, just with the expected rain. Plus the dam is being opened for the first time into the main bayou that runs through Katy to prevent the dam from breaking which means Katy, & Cinco Ranch will have unprecedented flooding.
Winds expected on tx/la border when Harvey reaches us? I know flooding definitely but I would like to be informed of winds to be expected if any. I am 14 miles in tx from la border.
Neurotoxin Black Mold will be a problem with all that water, and humidity in the air.
Thanks Levi for all your work and also for your thoughts and prayers. I appreciate it so much. We’ve lost a lot in the past 36 hours but my family is safe.
Jim, so sorry to hear about losses, but I am very glad your family is safe. Thanks for the kind words and I wish you the best.
Well, I owe the Ohio poster an apology! It looks like the remnants of Harvey WILL effect the state of Ohio with rain!
Don’t like the looks of that storm that comes in the same TX/LA border area mid-next-week on the models. Any thoughts on the likelihood of that Levi?
Hey Levi,
I been one of your fans for a long time. I want you to know how much I appreciate your time, energy, and analytical weather wisdom. Tropical Tidbits is a great site for catastrophe professionals like me. You the man! I will be donating to you again real soon. Headed to Texas…. Thanks Levi….carry on!
You are very kind David, thank you!
Levi, Am anxiously awaiting your analysis of Irma which is apparently next in the queue.Just curious…why did you stop commenting on Harvey? For benefit of your other fans, you simply can’t describe in words the devastation and flooding in Houston.
Thank you much for your efforts.
Dave B
Hey, Levi. Hope you’re doing good. It’s been a long time, hasn’t it? WU’s no more; not our WU, anyway.
I’m still weather watching. I’ve had my eyes on Harvey. The flooding and damage breaks my heart to see. We did check in on Shore and Emmy Rose from WU, who were in Harvey’s path. They’re fine. Can’t get out until the water goes down but they’re dry. They even have power. One of Shore’s friends was not so lucky. She’s safe but her neighbor has 2 feet of water in his house, so she expects the same at her place, when she gets back. She was flooded out in that last big flood in Houston. Just finished the repairs/renovation and she’ll probably have to start over again.
I’ve got Irma out there now to keep an eye on. Unless there’s some major changes, I don’t think she’ll be an issue for us along the SC coast. Knock on wood. You never know.
I need to make a point of checking in here more often. I’ve just never posted.
Bug