Support TT[Wednesday Evening] Harvey Reforms – Likely to Become a Hurricane and Impact Texas with Dangerous Flooding
Latest Advisory from the National Hurricane Center
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Comments
Thanks for the post, Levi. My heart goes out to the people of Texas and Louisiana. I would be shaking in my boots if Harvey was heading toward my state. I can’t even imagine measuring rainfall in feet.
Thanks for the post! This video answered a lot of questions.
Levi, I have two general questions.
I noticed the timestamp on your posts are ahead of mine in New York City, Where are you located?
Secondly, when previously visiting your site regarding both summer and winter storms, I used to be able to access the Euro models. Are they no longer available? If people contribute to your website would that help restore them?
I used to rely on Accu-Weather’s Henry Margusity for insightful weather blogs, but he appears to have been unceremoniously dumped (“retired”) by that site after so many years there. Now the only decent blogger there is Frank Strait (in fact he often recommended your site in his blogs).
The timestamp is supposed to adjust to your local timezone, but perhaps it messed up with yours. My timezone is EDT. I’m not sure what you mean about the Euro model, as it is still available on the models page on this site from the “Global” menu.
Levi, will Harvey become a very powerful Cat 3 upon landfall? Lots of people have been talking about that. What do you think?
There is potential for Harvey to strengthen a lot just before landfall, but it’s not clear how much just yet. Right now the NHC’s best estimate is that Harvey will be a Cat 1 at landfall. Regardless of the wind strength, flooding is expected to be a primary danger.
GFS shows Harvey making landfall a little bit below Corpus Christi, at S. Padre Island as a Cat. 3. Is that better for Houston, windwise?
Farther south Harvey is, the better for Houston, Paul.
Lets cut to the chase! This is going to be a RAIN event, nothing more….nothing less! Because it’s locked in by two high pressure systems, it’s not moving much at all! So, a ton of rain is going to hit the Texas coast and somewhat inland, possibly 10 to 15 inches total. Move to high ground, get up on the 2nd floor, or move farther inland to keep from drowning!
While rain is likely the biggest overall threat from this storm, it is incorrect to say that it is the only threat.
Well, that knucklehead Cantore on the weather channel has got people scared that this may turn into a MAJOR hurricane, class 3 possibility! PLEASE! Won’t have enough time to develop to that category, true or false?
Thank you, Levi! As always, your posts are so informative. You do a great job translating science into layman’s terms for us weather nerds. We live 35 miles SW of Houston and I always depend on your blog posts during hurricane season for the best information.
What about invest 92L? Anything going to happen with it?
It’s in a marginal environment, and NHC currently only gives it a low (10%-20%) chance of development. We’ll keep a wary eye on it.
It looks like the Hurricane of 1983 that hit Galveston Island? I remember that one as a 9 year old kid.
It looks a bit like Allison (2001) too. Allison stalled on land because of a high pressure system to its north and dropped a lot of rain. As a ridge off of the Florida coast dissolved it then did a loop and steered back to the east dumping rain along the same spots.
Levi do you think it could head further east and affect coastal louisana Mississippi Alabama?
I live on the western portion of brazoria county, when we had Allison in 2001 our area looked like a lake, what’s the potential for a repeat?
I’d have to say probably not on the Cat 3, Levi. Based on latest guidance, Harvey should have a little problem getting that strong. Still, rapid intensification should happen Thursday and Friday. What do you think?
Levi we live in San Antonio, Texas. What’s your gut feel here? Do you think we will be in the bulls eye for the rain? Our local weather folks are being somewhat cautious to say we will get the brunt of the rain. Also, do you think we could see tropical storm winds here? Its happen before. Thanks for all your work on this site. You help a lot of folks.
I just hope that the Texas people are ready, because the Cinco Ranch area of Katy becomes a flood zone when just a string thunderstorm lingers, major tropical rain would be a disaster.
Great site and great job Levi. I live in Rockport TX so am following u close. I also lived in Sinton TX in 1970. Hurricane Celia was coming in with 90 mile an hour winds. About 50 miles out is got smaller and winds went to 180 mph. wild ride. Do not know how much data there was from those conditions to compare to today and that potential. Like u said wind is not the big killer it is the water. Live on the water at 7.5 elev. Finial plans are being made now and want to start at sunup. Have u marked for my guidance. Thanks
Hi Sky Guy
Love your presentation very clear and decisive. We also live in Rockport about 30 miles north of Corpus Christi. We just built a new two story house on Port Bay right on the water. The house is about 7-1/2 feet above sea level. I’m sure we will flood but not sure what extent. If you were us would you stay or leave?
Your thoughts?
– Bill W.
Hi Sky Guy
Love your presentation very clear and decisive. We also live in Rockport about 30 miles north of Corpus Christi. We just built a new two story house on Port Bay right on the water. The house is about 7-1/2 feet above sea level. I’m sure we will flood but not sure what extent. If you were us would you stay or leave?
Your thoughts?
– Bill W.
I can’t assess your personal risk. That is up to you, and if your local officials say you should evacuate, then do so. Things are changing quickly today, so stay up-to-date on the forecast. Be safe.
Well, if you build right on the water, you know the risks! Flooding, storm surge, etc. 90% of all Hurricane damage and 90% of all Hurricane fatalities occur within 3 MILES OF THE BEACH! Evacuation are costly and expensive! If you go inland 20 miles your still gonna lose power more than likely and then you have the risk of tornado activity. But it’s your call! A mandatory evacuation does not mean you MUST go! It just means that if you stay….your on you own!
I believe the Hurricane of 1919 left a boat in the third story attic of the Fulton Mansion.
Y’all be careful