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[Sunday] Invest 90L Likely to Become a Tropical Storm Soon – to Impact Yucatan Peninsula Monday and Tuesday
The tropical wave entering the western Caribbean is becoming better organized today. Significant pressure falls are being observed in the region between Jamaica and the coast of Honduras, and satellite data indicate that the wave axis is becoming better defined. Although some westerly shear is impacting the system, it is likely to lessen over the next day or so, and convection has been persistent during the last 24 hours. It is becoming more likely that 90L will become a tropical storm prior to reaching the Yucatan Peninsula later on Monday, and tropical storm conditions are likely to occur near and just north of where the low center moves ashore. Current model forecasts indicate that the center of the system will likely make landfall near or north of Chetumal, but until a well-defined circulation forms, there will be some uncertainty in the track. Regardless, interests in Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula should closely monitor this system. Visit hurricanes.gov for the latest information.
After crossing the Yucatan Peninsula and emerging over the Bay of Campeche, 90L is expected to encounter favorable environmental conditions for strengthening, and it is possible that the eastern coastline of Mexico could face a hurricane threat sometime around Thursday. Details will be uncertain until the system moves into the Bay of Campeche.
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Do you see a Texas landfall (personally) as more likely than a Mex. landfall?
A Texas landfall is currently very unlikely.
Sorry for asking, Levi. But—you do understand that last thing we need here in Houston is another big hurricane, don’t you?
Thanks for the info. Tropical cyclones moisture is very beneficial for interior areas of the southwest. By the way Levi, do you also track or discuss east-PAC storms when they threaten the baja?
There are occasionally exceptions, but I usually post only about Atlantic tropical cyclones.
Hi Levi,
Do you see a potential Biloxi, Mississippi threat of a land falling hurricane? What kind of Gulf Coast Mississippi threat?
The Caribbean storm is not a threat to Mississippi.
What baffles me is these posters who all have EYES and can see the radar movement of these storms, asking you if this one will hit the Mississippi coast line! Only Stevie Wonder or Ray Charles would be so BLIND as to ask this question, don’t ya think?
Some truth, but they may have seen other, I’m politely saying, ‘amateur’ weather pages which have been rather, um, speculative. I saw a FB repost of one which had the entire US east and gulf coasts in a highlighted ‘danger zone.’ I guess crap like that drives clicks
Levi what do you see for a pattern setup were future storms might go the rest of hurricane season?