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[Monday Night] Hurricane Matthew Bearing Down on Haiti and Cuba – Now Forecast to Get Very Close to the United States
Latest Information from the National Hurricane Center
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Thanks Levi.
Have found your site to be one of the best resources for easy, consolidated access to good up-to-date data (recon, models). Love your straightforward and well-educated viewpoints in your videos as well.
Pls keep up the great work. Thanks Levi.
I’m located near Savannah,Ga. I can tell you no one is really paying attention to Matthew here, which is scary.
Wow, that’s a big mistake IMO. There is a very good possibility of seeing Cat 2 hurricane just offshore on Friday.
I am near Savannah and agree. Even the weather channel seems to speak of Charlestown or Jacksonville and consistently leaves out the Savannah low country area of Georgia. Happened with hermine also, people around my area are putting up Halloween decorations and folks in my neighborhood won’t bring in lawn furniture during a storm because there is never any talk about it on our local stations- making problems for those who get prepared. Thanks Levi for offering this info so we can make plans if things pan out in a worst case scenario.
Charleston*.
As a SE New England resident should I be worried?
Not just yet, as even if it comes up that way, it is still a good several days away. Keep informed on the storm’s progress over the next few days.
Let me rephrase that. As a SE New England resident what are the chances that my area gets hit directly from this system? I’m talking a landfalling system somewhere between Long Island and Cape Cod that brings hurricane-like conditions, or a near miss that still brings tropical storm-like conditions.
Sorry, I should have been more clear with my question.
Still unclear as that could be 6 or more days away. Right now most forecasts keep it away from New England, but that could change.
Ok thanks for the reply.
In the GFS 04 0ctober 00, HR 132, what surface wind speed is that? What category?
It is a guess right now. I live in SE MA. We need the rain so the GFS current solutions works well for us. No one wants storm conditions but after our extreme drought it may be a net positive.
As a pure guess I’d say it is a flip of the coin that it stays well off shore. That trough looks like it it will move it away from the mid-atlantic and how that develops over the next 48 hours will be significant.
But we don’t need the wind with so many drought-stricken trees. How windy will it be if current GFS holds true?
In the 5 hours since I typed that the NHS has placed the 5-day location of Matthew 150 or so miles south of Long Island heading North-East as a Cat-1 storm. If that holds it will pass over the outer cape or just south of the Islands.
From past experiences that might mean gust to storm force or just around cat-1 strength. That would affect the MA coast a gale similar to a strong winter storm. Inland gust could be strong enough to affect trees.
This is 5 days out. Intensity and location 5-days out is problematic. The westward slide of the forecast path takes Matthew over NC, and it may be over land even longer reducing the wind strengths and enlarging the wind field.
All that said [guessed at] take note the the ECMWF last run places Matthew 400 miles SE of Cape Cod on Monday. If that model is right NE will see large surf as the only affect.
Did a bit of dry air get ingested by Mathew just before the eyewall disruption/ replacement cycle? It looked like it did just as the eyewall was most exposed on its North side.
Best analyst out there. Hands down. The daily video updates are so intellectual and accessible.
Couldn’t agree more. The way Levi describes what’s happened, happening, and about to happen makes it so easy to understand and follow for a novice like me. If Levi isn’t running the nws or nhc someday, it’s a travesty.
Thanks again. Unfortunately you’ve put me into action mode. WPB here. Looks like I need to prep for a pretty big event. Cat1…Im good…but now Im feeling Cat2 or more is more probable for me as Im less than a mile from the coast.
I am all the way over here in Fort Myers Fl. I am not that concerned except for tornadoes that could disrupt power over here. I just went and topped off my gas cans for the generator.
Levi, you are so good and this was so easy to understand.
Thank you so much. I need to share this on my fb wall and text it to my son in low… he is not on FB but lurks on WU a lot and works for FPL so always interested in these situations.
again Thank you so much. Please continued to keep us update. I have here in SE Fla in the Ft Lauderdale area.
I live in Kansas, but still always watch your videos. Hopefully the southeast stays safe!
Thanks Levi. I had a feeling this storm would effect Florida given how far south in the Caribbean it was. Charlie and Wilma came out of this area as well. It will be an interesting week for south Florida wonder if we’ll see some weather from it here in southwest Fl. Informative update as always.
Thank you for your time. You are a great analyst. Keeping a close watch may need to pull my boat. Ocean city md .
Matthew has already dumped over 14 inches of rain in Cabo Rojo, Dominican Republic.
I’m south of Savannah and have my plan to evacuate. All my friends think I’m crazy. Better safe than sorry. Thanks for your videos and site!
Thanks Levi and Happy New Year. 😉
Most informative Levi, I reside in Chasn and still remember Hugo Floyd all too well.
Thanks for the heads up Levi, being in Hollywood Florida on the coast gives me chills. Hope the mountains of the greater Antilles tears the inner core to shreds and we end up with a cloudy day on Thursday. Stay safe all !!
Thank you for the update
If in fact this arcing track occurs, as you and these models have shown is possible, and Matthew maintains “Major” strength, could we see beach erosion that is without parallel in U.S. history?
The reason I ask, is there is an avid amateur forecaster named OracleDeAtlantis that occasionally publishes “intuition only” based forecasts on the Weather Underground who predicted a large, “one in a million year event” this year, which would cause massive beach erosion in South Carolina and surrounding beaches. He was quite specific, and even suggests in a forecast video that the “rare” storm would first strike St. Lucia in September, which remarkably happened.
He created a video underling his rare storm forecast, using aerial imagery taken by the Coast Guard showing the coastal devastation following Hugo, taken from a helicopter as if flew from Georgetown, up the coast. He put the forecast scene to the music of “September” by the band Lt. Lucia, and named the forecast video a “Warning” to South Carolina. The chorus line reads, “remember September,” again by a band named St. Lucia. Wild!
This forecaster also predicted months in advance that the ocean would “boil in preparation” of this event, and I’ve read that the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential this season is at all-time record highs in the Caribbean; so add another curious coincidence to this forecaster’s mix of growing odds.
Speaking of coincidences, I find it odd that Matthew is also threading the needle almost perfectly to maintain his strength, prior to entering the main “target” event. It’s literally taking the path of least resistance.
I’m not a hurricane historian, but I can think of no other events with a similar track, such as this might take, with an almost perfect offshore arc, which maintains the storms strength, while allowing the maximum amount of beach erosion to occur.
A “one in a million” is a pretty bold forecast to make, but to say WHERE it will be centered, months in advance seems beyond normal odds.
I’m always impressed by your post and videos. Having been directly impacted by Hurricane Ike in 2008 with a Beach house right on the Beach in Galveston…..folks on the East Coast need to start preparing now. I’m going to donate to your site now, keep up the good work….Thanks Levi.
You’re very kind – thank you!
Well done. We in Tampa follow your updates.
Excellent Levy!!
Thank you Levi for all that you do! I found your site last year off of mikes weather page. Which I also follow mike on fb. Between you and mike I am able to understand so much easier as to why these storms do what they do and I can honestly say I trust you and mike more then most of he meteorologist on our news stations. I’m in Georgetown SC and I will be going in the morning to get the things I need to prepare for the storm but if it seems it will be to bad for us here we do have a evacuation plan in order. I just had back surgery two weeks ago today and I’m really not up for a long ride in the event of a evacuation but I will do what ever needs to be done to keep my family safe. Praying for everyone in this storms path! Stay safe and Thank you so much again! As soon as I recover from my surgery and I am able to return to work I will be more then happy to donate to your site because you certainly deserve it! God bless!
Thank you,very much what a great site found it last week. I’m a director of maintenance of the oldest Catholic school and church in Broward County.your site has so much information on it.I would like is a morning and evening briefing. Keep up the great work!!!
Thanks Levi
GREAT SITE and info
Keeping all sets of eyes on this one
Have a place in ELH but looks like that western curve my spare it
Andros may not be so lucky and will likely take direct hit
Most I see for Spanish Wells area is 80-90 for ~12 hrs(hope I’m wrong)
We tried to persuade some new property owners in ELH they should leave but they seem to think it’s no big deal(the 2YO didn’t get a vote)
Daughter is in ILM, we’re in RDU so guess she will be heading this way
Thankful that it’s not looking Fran(ish) for us.
Thoughts and prayer are with all those in the path
St. Simons Island, Georgia
Great job as always. Here in Wilmington NC I hope the storm is not stronger the CAT 2 but that upper pattern is concerning
currently they are showing a new england track again…yay
Best information out there ! Everyone should be watching this ! ..rR
They’re only mentioning the wind speed as a category 4 hurricane with max winds of 145 mph. They’re not talking about how much water it’s pushing before it, and pulling behind it.
We are Virginia Beach, Virginia, 5 miles inland from the coast. We are taking the storm very seriously and are making preparations to hunker down and expect outages and tree damage from previous rains which have saturated our area. We very much appreciate your up-dates and will continue to monitor here. Question: If the storm goes more inland as it tracks north towards our way, would the storm be weaker? If it stays along the coast and stays stronger, would the affects still be felt here and if so, would we then just be expecting a more tropical system to affect us? Thanks. Be well all.
Hi Nancy – If the storm were to move up offshore of the Carolinas and then move toward the mid-Atlantic states, it would likely be stronger than if it were to have tracked inland. However, even inland storms tracking into the mid-Atlantic can pack powerful winds and heavy rains, as they usually get an assist from non-tropical processes at that point.
For now, it is not yet clear whether the mid-Atlantic states will have to worry about Matthew at all. That’s still several days away.
I am in SE MA where we need the rain. The NC through DE area does not need more water. Is your area low and/or susceptible to surge affects? The winds may be a concern, but it is water that cause even more problems. If you have never gone through such a storm, check with local authorities about potential flooding. Five miles is still “on the coast” so take care.
Hey Levi,
Thank you for your hard work preparing these updates. We have found them very interesting and educational. We are in Fort Lauderdale, and have interests in Nassau and NC. Look forward to your next update!
Cheers!
Thanks so much for your insight Levi. Its like “Hurricanes for Dummies” in that I can actually understand what is happening and I thank you for that! Keep on Trackin’
Another good briefing young man!! Don’t forget to mention in your next briefing that when the Hurricane begins to lose some of its punch near Northern FL, and the soft underbelly of the Continent, (Georgia and the Carolinas), it will noticeably EXPAND. This of course will expand the convection and wind field over a MUCH larger area, (albeit reduced winds). So, the effects of Hurricane Matt will be felt much farther inland then maybe some folks are anticipating across FL., GA., and the Carolinas (winds, heavy rain, beach erosion), Not sure what high tide times are but make sure you mention this as the storm gets closer to FL and the rest in your next briefing. Good Luck and Good Luck to those living in the path of this brutal beast!!!
Also, with the west-drift of the guidance folk in the Mid-atlantic and NE should expect the potential for a very strong gale even if the are away from the cat-1 core of Matthew.
Matthew could have impacts all the way from FL to ME. This is an interesting storm path.
Yes the storm’s wind field will likely expand when it turns northward, if not before. I’ve mentioned it in previous videos – it is an important point.
I have been recommending your site to all I speak with. Also appreciate the easy access to various prog charts. The 850mb and 10 meter wind charts are what I find most useful for assessing damage potential. Right now it looks like Orlando”s biggest concern are tornados and local flooding. What happens at Guantanamo Bay will be most telling for Oralando’s future.
Lewi,
thank you for your effort making dropsonde data available with graphics!
Just minor mistake it seems, for example…
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF303-1914A-MATTHEW_dropsonde_20161004-1547.png
There is a note in the bottom right “mean wind in lowest 150m” – I guess that means lowest 150mb, so “mb” not “m”? It’s confusing as someone would think its meters not milibars.
That is the wind in the lowest 150 m, not the lowest 150 mb.
Fantastic analysis and extremely helpful!
Since most models have moved West and confidence is higher for Florida and the SE Coast, are there any better feelings and/or educated guesses on impacts for Long Island, NY at this time?
Levi, what are your thoughts on the NAVGEM? Being a South Florida resident, this one is the most concerning.
Levi; can you please explain what this means for Miamidade county fl in term of potential winds
Looks like another wave is following right in Matthew’s path. I hope we don’t have another two weeks worth of stress on our hands.
In north central FL, about 35 miles north of Gainesville. What will the winds look like for us? I’m in an area with LOTS of 80-120 foot trees, and had many fall during Hermine. Go away, or stay? Thanks Levi! As always, I rely on YOUR info more than ANY other source!
Levi , do you think the low that thshe NHC has given 10% will follow suit to Matthew and be something to worry about? Or do you think it’s a dud ?
That the *
As always thank you Levi!!
Levi! Would love another update as we wait on Matthew in Palm Beach County! For today and into next week. Thanks in advance!