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[Friday Morning] Matthew Continues to Strengthen
Hurricane Matthew continues to strengthen this morning, with the latest recon aircraft finding a pressure of 969mb and winds up to 115 mph. Matthew may undergo some fluctuations in intensity as it interacts with Columbia and dry air to its west over the next day or two, but Matthew could be a major hurricane as it nears Jamaica by early Monday. A track near Jamaica, Haiti, and eastern Cuba is expected Monday and Tuesday, and into the Bahamas by Wednesday, continuing northward to the east of the United States. There is some greater confidence in this general track forecast this morning than there was a couple days ago. However, direct impacts from Matthew in Florida or the rest of the southeast U.S. coastline cannot be ruled out at this time. Such impacts would still be several days away, and residents should stay informed on Matthew.
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Levi–Pretty please! Colombia not Columbia.
Recon actually seems to have found a pressure as low as 965 mb.
There are two different pressure measurements. One is extrapolated from flight-level (965 mb), and the other is a direct measurement from a dropsonde (969 mb). The latter is more correct. The former is just an estimate.
Ah, thank you for letting me know about this. Though I wouldn’t be surprised if recon does end up finding 965 mb if this rate of rapid intensification continues.
Thanks, Levi… writing to you from Miami Shores, I am interested (to say the least!) the current track…
WHY IS THE UKMET MODEL BEING IGNORED, IN RELATION TO WESTWARD TRACK
WE WERE ALWAYS TOLD THAT THE MODEL CONCENSUS DETERMINES THE THE ACTUAL TRACK?
Most of the models take it out to sea or have it landfall on the East Coast.
The UKMET is not usually as accurate with hurricanes as some of the other models, but it is not ignored.
I beg to differ. If I remember correctly, UKMET is one of the 3 most reliable models.
In some, but not all, aspects. It is not particularly good with hurricanes, specifically.
We are in Île à Vache Haïti, the track interest us very much…
Levi –
The GFS continues to initiate its runs a much higher MB than what current measurements show. In the 12z run, its 30-40 MB too high…why is this happening and would this not affect the track of the system? A deeper system would feel the pull northward faster and more sharply, correct?
Are you looking at the 850mb winds? If so, check the surface pressure, that’s what you want to check.
I agree. I see that the GFS Ensembles for 12Z just came out with an initialization at 1001 mb!! Even at 12Z, it was at least 30 mb stronger than that. It has to affect the outcomes. The 06z initialization was stronger. Weird. Anyone to shed any light?
The GFS MSLP field is lower resolution than the model’s native grid, so it shows a higher pressure than the model actually initializes. The real GFS initial pressure is 969mb, which we can see from the full resolution surface pressure grid.
Will this intensify once it passes Cuba and goes into the Bahamas? Could we see a major hurricane when it gets close to the east coast?
It will probably stay a major hurricane until at least next Thursday.
The storm would likely weaken upon crossing Cuba or Haiti, but strengthening on the other side in the Bahamas is certainly possible. Hard to say for sure this many days in advance.
GFS shows it heading OTS then hooking back to New England?? How strong would it be at that point?
That’s way too far out to know anything at all right now.
Thanks Levi. I found your site from a mention on the WU comments. They were right on target with their admiration of your skills.
What is your opinion of dangers to the SW Florida coast. The area is just getting back on it’s feet after Charley, are we facing being back to square one?
Whoa, current data coming out of the NOAA HH going in and out of the eye is down right scary. Look just how fast winds have intensified in just the last two hours.
Up to Cat 4 at the next NHC Update? Sure looks like it.
Yeah, but what kind of vomit trip is that?!?! What happened to good ol’ alpha patterns??