Mike says:

Hi Levi,

One of the best discussions I ever heard. Great meteorology used here! And great model suite for sure!

Mike says:

Thanks again for the effort you put into these reports. I hit the tip jar and I hope others do as well.

Bill E says:

Outstanding job Levi! I always look forward to your preseason forecast. As someone who lives in SE Florida it’s very important to me to get ahead of the curve to be prepared.

Thanks again!

Fred says:

Well done Levi! Your explanation of the upcoming season was very thorough and I think right on target. I’ll be curious to see how the TNA plays out this season. If the trades do turn out to be stronger over the Atlantic then we’ll likely see that index trend near to slightly below normal.

Brandon says:

Thanks!

FishOutofWater aka George says:

Excellent presentation but I disagree with the model predictions of SST progression in the Atlantic. The cool pool associated with the subpolar gyre south of Greenland is weakening as the wave 1 driving a stronger than normal the polarnstream from the Gulf of Mexico towards Norwayup the by El Nino fades. The cool pool was maintained by persistent low pressure south of Greenland. Warmer than normal water is already spinning around the gyre and the center of the gyre is warming.

The models don’t seem to be handling the cross equatorial transport of water and the developing Atlantic Niño very well. Cooling along the equator and subsidence in the south Atlantic is pushing more water across the equator along the coast of Brazil than normal.

According to AOML the heat content east of Florida and north of the Bahamas is the highest it has been for this date since measurements began in 2005. The waters east of Florida are stunningly warm and may support the development of a tropical storm this weekend according to both the ECMWF and GFS models.

With the weakening of the trade winds that we’re going to see over the next 2 weeks according to the GFS the tropical north Atlantic will heat up even more. The warm north Indian ocean supports strong subsidence in the south Atlantic according to a recent paper on that teleconnection. I think the global models are wrongly predicting subsidence in the tropical north Atlantic that will actually occur in the south Atlantic. I don’t think the models are handling the way the atmosphere transfers heat to the tropical north Atlantic after a strong El Niño.

I wrote about the effect of El Niño on the following year’s Atlantic hurricane season here:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/05/03/1521516/-Gulf-Stream-Slows-Tides-Jump-Tropical-Atlantic-Heats-up-Watch-Out-East-Coast

You’re right that there is no good analog to this year. You have missed the effect of the El Niño teleconnection in your analysis. I know damn well that I could be wrong and I haven’t figured out an algorithm for determining the number of hurricanes nor a measure of the “ACE” or other measure of energy release. What I have seen is the complete failure of the CFS model and the crappy fix for its inability to handle the effects of Amazon river water on the vertical stability of the Brazil current system that transfers heat across the equator.

I think this season will be an intense one because the tripole you discuss is breaking down and heat is building up in the tropical and subtropical Atlantic.