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Invest 96L: Real Meteorology Versus Hype and Public Perception

   Posted by Levi at 9:38pm on August 20, 2014


31 comments

   

Comments

  • David says:
    August 20, 2014 at 22:24

    Have listen to your videos in the past, but this one was very informative. Really like the way you go out of your way to explain things so clearly. I have been a hurricane tracker since I was a kid growing up in Key West. Thanks again for your great videos.

  • Lower Cal says:
    August 20, 2014 at 22:51

    Levi, you are a great communicator. I appreciate the clear and informative way that you share your extensive knowledge. If the Miami TV stations had a draft I’m sure you would be the first pick.

  • brenda richie says:
    August 20, 2014 at 22:51

    thank you Levi.I always look at your thoughts on the tropics before any other forum. I have followed you for 4 years on wunderground im known as msalagranny on there. keep up the great work and God bless you my friend

  • stefanie says:
    August 20, 2014 at 22:54

    Wise words my friend. 🙂 Thanks.

  • Maggie in NC says:
    August 20, 2014 at 23:18

    Thanks again for a very informative discussion. I have followed your comments for several years (early WU comments of yours before branching out). Have read in the past that you are at the University in Fairbanks… Is this your senior year?

  • Bill in VA says:
    August 21, 2014 at 00:22

    Thanks, Levi. I’ve followed you for several years on Weather Underground and enjoy your posts there as well as here. Thanks for the well thought out, reasoned explanations. It’s nice to get information without the hype.

  • sunlinepr says:
    August 21, 2014 at 00:39

    For me that’s a meteorology course. Keep the informative excellent work and Thanks for your effort.

  • heath says:
    August 21, 2014 at 01:41

    Love the attitude behind your videos. You are very humble with your knowledge. Thanks for sharing.

  • Jan says:
    August 21, 2014 at 03:50

    Levi,
    Myself and my husband have enjoyed,and learned, from listening to you for years now. It appears that things have forced you to be more reticent this year. We are especially distressed that you now have to incorporate a disclaimer with your introduction. Your intelligence and common sense are sorely lacking in most others we’ve seen/heard. Please keep doing what you do so well! Thanks!! Sincerely—Avid Florida Fans

  • Kevin Caffrey says:
    August 21, 2014 at 03:57

    Great website. Very informative and factual.
    I am a weather fanatic and will be sure to visit this site often.

    Thank you,
    Kevin Caffrey

  • Dave Ross says:
    August 21, 2014 at 10:47

    Hey awesome! I started my masters at UAF in Atmospheric Sciences. I ended up in medical/therapy field and am now in Florida as well. Great memories of West Ridge 🙂 great site my friend!

  • Rich says:
    August 21, 2014 at 11:36

    Thank you Levi. I read Dr Masters for fun and entertainment. I LEARN and STUDY your videos. Thank you for putting in the time and effort to make these. I check for updates everyday in the season and smile when I see a new one.

  • Jason says:
    August 21, 2014 at 14:13

    Nice video. I am supposed to be in Bahamas this Sat – Wed. Looks like I can expect some impact but not sure if I am dealing with just rain or a serious tropical event. Any advice on what to expect or whether I should reschedule? Thx.

    • Levi says:
      August 21, 2014 at 19:44

      Until (if) a storm forms, it’s very hard to say whether the Bahamas could be dealing with a legitimate storm. I can’t really help you with travel decisions, except to say that the system won’t have a lot of time before reaching the Bahamas to become a monster. If you’re traveling to an area where tropical action could potentially take place, just make sure you have somewhere safe to be, and keep an eye on 96L and NHC bulletins as your trip approaches.

      • Jason says:
        August 21, 2014 at 19:52

        Thanks for the reply. I am rooting for the solutions that show it curving out to sea.

  • natureobs says:
    August 21, 2014 at 18:48

    Thank you for your sage analysis.

    I was scrolling through the comments and noticed that you said you are at Florida State? What town?

    Good luck in your studies.

  • Brandon says:
    August 21, 2014 at 19:24

    Thanks Levi – Really enjoyed this one – focusing on all of the possible options seems to provide more of a learning opportunity for people like myself!

  • ge2655 says:
    August 21, 2014 at 19:54

    I wasn’t paying much attention to this disturbance and began checking out the great site WU to get a feel of what was going on.

    I was surprised at the number of hysterical noobs who were foaming at the mouth that this ‘blip’ was not only going to slam Fla. but the S.E. coast of Fla. as a major storm.

    For a dose of reality, I leaned on ‘good old Levi’ to provide some sanity. It is most ironic that the one person who says ‘don’t listen to me’ is one of the guys I listen to most intently when these situations arise.

    Thanks Levi, you may not be the greatest but you’re one of the great.

    Regards,
    -Gary Eufemia
    Hollywood Florida

  • James Wieland says:
    August 21, 2014 at 20:54

    Go NOLES! Good to hear you’re at my alma mater! I think Dr. Ahlquist is still there, tell him I said hey. The heat is something else there. Even hotter than down here in south Florida but at least it gets cool in the summer. Keep up the good work! love the vids!

  • Jeremy Montague says:
    August 21, 2014 at 21:33

    Good analysis & some thought behind it…keep up the good work!

  • natureobs says:
    August 21, 2014 at 21:36

    Sorry, I had a brain hiccup! They have renamed some community colleges down here as state universities. I’m so used to hearing “FSU” as opposed to Florida State, I totally blanked that they were one and the same.

    Yes, the heat is a killer. …Wait till “winter” comes. When it gets below 60 F people will be wearing their heavy winter clothes and you will be shaking your head.

    Welcome to FL.

  • dave says:
    August 22, 2014 at 00:01

    Whenever I hear of Troughs and the Bahamas,I think of Katrina,Andrew and Ike,Troughs lift out and supplanted by high pressure.

  • Davanji says:
    August 22, 2014 at 00:42

    Always turn to you first. NHC is the default recommendation, I know, but I don’t get the explanation which provides the most education from them. Thanks, as always.

    p.s. By the way, bride and I just returned from an Alaskan cruise. MAJESTIC! Makes one feel very small.

  • HarryKane says:
    August 22, 2014 at 02:41

    Wow Levi, Great work, I can see by the number of responses , you are getting very popular with the weather watchers. You can tell there is something missing from the “main stream” weather folks. They don’t seem to have the “pazzaz” and spark that you have. Sometimes I have to watch your videos several times before I can catch it all. You are the best at explaining the weather around the storms that help send them in various directions. I recall the 1960’s when weather folks really had no idea why storms moved the way they do. I look at you as the new generation weather guru. I still peek at the NHC to see if they have it right, then I use my own common sense to determine my regress or not from the pending storms. (no disclaimer needed !!) Keep up the fine work Levi !!

  • emeraldpeace says:
    August 22, 2014 at 12:12

    You probably have already been asked this, but what major did you study as an undergrad? Was it something to do with physics?

  • RR says:
    August 22, 2014 at 20:32

    I think some of the mets or so called forecasters who like to play in left field are paying too much attention to the Canadian model which blows up the storm into S Florida and curving back into the pan handle by middle of next week.

    HWRF and GFS have the mid latitude trough over N Atlantic picking up the system and curving it to the N then NE (away from land). Seems to me that big “IF” is whether or not the trough picks up the system and how far north it curves the system. That will all depend on timing and it could really go 50/50 at this point. Latest ensembles are really diverging on this feature which was a big change from yesterday.

    Another factor (as you pointed out) is the surface high pressure settling into NE area and ridging down the eastern seaboard. If this H ridges down the eastern seaboard a bit stronger, it could play into the Canadian model’s forecast as it would basically force the storm to S Florida/ Gulf of Mexico area.

    And lastly, if the trough does pick up the system, how long will it curve it to the north. It’s very possible that the trough could curve it north but then leave it behind as it meanders off the SE coastline before the surface high curves it back to the west.

    I live in Raleigh and looks like we could see back door cold frontal passage on Saturday indicating hybrid damming event for Sunday.

    Nice explanations in your video. Keeping it real and not hyped is good for all involved.

  • Doug Hj says:
    August 23, 2014 at 00:13

    I liked the rolling ball. Hope you have time this year to continue the informative post.

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