Chaser1 says:

Levi – Thanks for the insightful analysis regarding the upcoming 1st week of the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Nice pick up on the dropping ULL. Two other factors that will perhaps work in tandem, is the fact that the quite warm waters of the far E. Pacific have aided in the ITCZ to migrate a bit more northward which ultimately bore Hurricane Andrea. As Andrea now rapidly weakens, surface inflow from the Southeast becomes more lax and with time should become westerly. This alone should help significantly aid moisture to stream into the W. Caribbean and furthermore increase convergence over the West Caribbean. Depending on the extent of influence and its orientation, the upper low that you picked up on, may well further help draw this moisture northward. We’ll see if that ULL reflects lower in the atmosphere down to the 500mb level in the event that cyclogenesis were to begin to occur to its east. Finally, the ITCZ has been suppressed southward over N. South America, may equally respond to the rising UL heights over the W. Caribbean. I would guess that the ITCZ will drift further north during this brief period of a week or two and perhaps further aid potential cyclogenesis by virtue of the added vorticity accompanying any westward moving waves. Though it wouldn’t shock me if no named system came out of this potential tropical soup, I’d be nearly just as inclined to suggest that perhaps 2 tropical cyclones could originate from such a setup…. all before going quiet in the Atlantic – for a while thereafter (baring some subtropical blob that might form off some old front and immediately move to the NE).

Matt says:

Levi ,

I think I speak for the majority of readers in that your insight is most appreciated!

Ever thought of doing a daily or every couple of days update? Love to hear your updates and thoughts on situations that are constantly evolving.

Thank you for all of your insight. It is greatly appreciated!!