Beryl Nearing Landfall Just South of Jacksonville, Florida

   Posted by Levi at 4:18pm on May 27, 2012

Convective coverage and intensity has increased with Beryl this morning, though her center is still not covered. As expected, the Gulf Stream has allowed convective bands to develop and strengthen the circulation. Although this morning’s recon plane did not find a change in central pressure (998mb), they found that winds had increased to around 60mph. This increase is due to the fact that Beryl had no thunderstorms yesterday, and the new ones she has today have tightened the circulation and the pressure gradient, thus increasing the wind speeds despite no change in central pressure. This type of organizational intensification will be the main source of any further strengthening of Beryl before landfall. Visible satellite imagery reveals a dry slot in the NW quadrant of the storm where cooler shelf waters are causing convective bands to dissipate, illustrating the region where Beryl will cease strengthening prior to landfall as she moves over it. Landfall will occur this evening just south of Jacksonville, Florida, and any further strengthening should be slight. Overall, her peak intensity and landfall location look like they will be in perfect agreement with my forecast from before she was named.

I discuss in the video why Beryl is fully tropical and should be classified as such by the NHC before landfall, but we will see what they decide. If they don’t reclassify it, I think it will get a second look in the post-season. Right now what title they give it doesn’t change the impacts to the coast.

The main story with Beryl will be the beneficial rainfall that she will provide to central-northern Florida and Georgia. As promised, rainfall can be found all around the circulation, and it will provide drought-relief for a wide swath following landfall. Unfortunately, the trough that is eroding the ridge to the north of Beryl will be recurving her to the NE or ENE tomorrow and Tuesday, taking her along the coast of the Carolinas, possibly offshore, and the shearing from the trough may keep most of the rainfall offshore for those areas, but some relief is still possible. Most models suggest that Beryl will redevelop into a tropical storm off of the outer banks of North Carolina, but she will be no threat for a second landfall.

After Beryl, the Atlantic should turn quiet for at least the next two weeks, and I think we will have to wait until after June 15th for any more significant threats for tropical development. May was extremely active, but the official season will start slow. I will be posting more on the reasoning behind that after Beryl is out of our hair.

We shall see what happens!

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