Watching for Caribbean development this weekend and next week; heavy rain for C.A.

   Posted by Levi at 9:20am on October 12, 2011

The Atlantic is fairly quiet today. Most of the tropical action is out in the eastern Pacific where Jova just moved ashore and TD 12 just formed, but is also about to move inland. TD 12 is the main carrier of the monsoon circulation right now, and thus it will be a feature to watch over the coming days. The models have it meandering around but not really wanting to leave central America for the foreseeable future. The GFS and ECMWF have backed off a bit on development in the Caribbean, in favor of keeping low pressure tangled up with central America. While this may happen and cause a longer delay before an opportunity for development, the western Caribbean should still be monitored for possible migration of low pressure into the region this weekend and next week. Either way, central America is likely to receive copious amounts of rain over the next week or so as the monsoon circulation sits directly over them, and flooding could become an issue for those countries.

We shall see what happens!

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